ground that I think would win this. I wont advise her as todays bet on the ground but she would have been a big bet on firm ground and such is her fitness edge I feel she may still win.

disappointing. That said I feel he has a very good chance of winning this.

I've always said he's not been campaigned too well being given ludicrous tasks at times and in a smallish field conceeding weight to inferior horses it could just suit him. It's an each way bet but JUNIOR is 7/1 on Betfair and he is the sort of horse that could drift out so there is probably more value betting him win and place on Betfair rather than taking the 5/1 with the bookies.

Roseberry a 0-98 handicap 2 runs ago and that was when he faced 70 days off the track and he probably wasn't fit.

He ran well on his last start and will be fitter still. His backclass and recent form tell me he can beat a favourite who has only won one bad maiden after 1 race when getting weight and having recent runs. I also like the fact all 4 of his wins have come on right handed tracks with a bend like this one.

start and a rail advantage. HOKU ran very well though in 3rd and will improve a lot and should handle a softer surface. He would be my choice here.

race on Grass I don't see why not. I feel I have to bet him here because he is such a big price and has a good profile.

r Members message as well. #racing

from Stall 1
* LUCANIN doesnt appeal as a 4yo
* Not first time out when he could be being handicapped
* The unraced horses dont look safe enough
* DUKE OF PERTH could be the main threat
* His trainer is not easy to trust with debutants
* I think I'd have to bite the bullet with Stall one
* STRING THEORY may just be able to overcome that
* The obvious compromise is the each way double

Selection - STRING THEORY

priced
horses. There are some races that could well be threatened by non runners and some are complicated stakes as well. MAGNANIMITY's clear and straight forward and a good price.

confident I can be with SOLWHIT having won at Aintree and Cheltenham and now trying to do the Festival Treble but I would much rather bet him than QUEVEGA.

He has more runs this year. I appreciate that may not be a negative for QUEVEGA but I'd rather have runs than not so he does look safer. If you look at the opposition that QUEVEGA faced when winning this for three years on the trot the highest rated opponent she faced was rated 158 and SOLWHIT is rated 167. There is always the threat three hard races may be too much but it may also be an advantage as well. Given similar prices I prefer SOLWHIT here.

Selection
SOLWHIT 11/8

* Then 4 on both and a 1 each way double

Perth 3.00 - VALLEYOFMILAN 11/8
Perth 3.30 - GOLDEN SPARKLE 3/1
Each Way Double

are brilliant but they are based on a small sample. There are some unexposed horses that might improve enough to win and beat my stats but I will be surprised if they do. She is a definite top of the message bet.

There is more chance of me upgrading her to a Full bet than there is downgrading her to a mention. I had two big dangers statistically and both are non runners. She encompasses the worst part of advising Flat bets in April in that you don't know about fitness levels. That's the danger but I feel she has the class to win and the stats to back her.

25/1 chance as well and worth a small bet as well. My gut feeling is it could be a bit too warm a race to have a proper bet so I will keep these as mentions.

d and failed
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* Previous winners had the following runs that season
* 5 3 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-116
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 18 4 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* No horse has won or placed with under 4 Chase runs
* Horses aged 7 have a weak 1-54 record in recent years
* Horses aged 7 won in 2001 1992 1984 1979 1968 1966
* There was a 6yo winner in 1994 (Earth Summit)
* Since then they finished 2 5 18 2 PU PU 8 UR 5 PU 2 PU
* With 3 second places as well as a win I'd respect them
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* Horses from Cheltenham Festivals underperform
* The have a 2-88 record since 1994
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Grade 1 form
* They both had only 10st weight as well
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* No winners came from Hurdles
* Horses aged 11 or more were 4-96
* With horses this age I want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* 13 of the last 14 winners ran within 60 days
* The last 14 runner ups also ran within 60 days
* 9 of the last 10 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-20 record in this
* The last 14 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out
* All recent winners started life in Hurdles or Bumpers

tives but the best record comes with 5yo's
* KING OF GLORY could be the better option

Selection - KING OF GLORY 9/2 Each Way

at the favourite FRUITY O'ROONEY he does look interesting. He ran very well when 5th at the Cheltenham Festival in a high class handicap. He then finished 2nd only 4 days ago at Ascot.

One of two things could happen here. He could find two hard races so quickly is just too much and he could dissapoint. Equally he could find that he has a significant fitness advantage ahead of the others and win. What I like about him is that we have a second favourite AS DE FER who has had just one race this season. He was thrashed in that race as well so I question his fitness.

I looked at all handicap chases in April at any distance. There were loads of winners like AS DE FER coming via Novice handicaps but none of them won with just one run that season. With a 3rd highest rated horse (MIDNIGHT SAIL) now a Non runner it strikes me that FRUITY O´ROONEY has very little to beat assuming he can put two quick and hard races behind him here.

FINE PARCHMENT must be a danger. He hasn't been staying 3m + on soft and that earns him respect but his rider has only just left school and the horse hasn't won in over 2 years now.
VENETIAN LAD could win but doesn't have backclass.

Selection - FRUITY O´ROONEY 6/4 Bet365

rating flatters MOLOTOF but that is still far better than the 130 rated WELL REGARDED who also has a long absence. Looking at both their profiles I was inclined to give MOLOTOF the benefit of the doubt. He was beaten a long way last time at Cheltenham but that wasn't entirely unexpected at 25/1 and his 3 Cheltenham runs have all been poor.

He will probably be better suited to this track and I think he deserves one more chance as he's met a lot of very good horses so far and he has still won a couple of Chases. I think he ought to win this.

Selection - MOLOTOF

n't the best age as a 7yo
* I cant make a strong enough case because of that
* He does offer a lot more statistically in other areas

* ARCTIC BEN has enough to shortlist at 25/1
* He is exposed and has no form beyond Class 2
* I don't like that but can find a winner like him
* Gower Slave 2001 won this aged 9 with the same profile
* He also won last time out so he looks fine

* THERE´S NO PANIC has 7 Chase starts
* Ideally I'd have liked more than that
* He is well raced this year and fit running well
* With a top class jockey I'm inclined to shortlist him

Selection
THERE´S NO PANIC 14/1 Win Bet to half of stake
ARCTIC BEN 25/1 Win Bet - Win Bet to a quarter of stake
MISTER FIRST 33/1 - Win Bet to a quarter of stake

ash (1999)
* Carlovent (2003) Culcabock (2009)
* None had 1-2-3-4 runs that season (0-57)
* None were aged 10 or more (0-26)
* All 4 winners had Graded form (Others 0-28)
* All 4 winners ran within 25 days (Others 0-42)
* All 4 winners were beaten last time
* All 4 winners had 11st or less weight

* Aintree have had 81 Handicap Chases since 1993
* Thats 77 Handicap Chases Not Novice Handicap Chases
* There were 7 winners aged 7
* Those with 11st or more had a poor 1-65 record

* Aintree has had 140 Handicaps since 1994
* Thats 140 handicaps over hurdles and fences
* There were only 9 winners aged 11 or older
* Those that had an absence of over 8 weeks are 0-84

* Aintree have had 60 Handicap Hurdles since 1993
* I looked at horses from Non Graded Novice Hurdles
* These horses struggled and just 1 from 47 won
* None managed it without previous Grade 1-2 form
* Avoid horses from Novice Hurdles if no Graded form

* Aintree have had 48 Handicap Hurdles since 1997
* There were 9 winners aged 5
* They all ran within 34 days
* Those with more than 11st weight were 1-35
* That winner (Escartefigue) came from a Grade 1 race
* There were 18 winners aged 6
* Those with 11st 4lbs or more were just 1-56
* That winner (Attaglance) had just won at Cheltenham
* There were 10 winners aged 7
* Those absent longer than a Month were 1-61
* That winner was Sudden Shock in 2002 absent 75 days

* Aintree have had 64 Handicap Chases since 1997
* There were 3 winners aged 5
* They all came from Cheltenham
* They all had under 7 previous Chase starts
* There were 5 winners aged 6
* They all had 11st 1lbs or less and under 8 Chase runs

heltenham 5.15
COLOUR SQUADRON 6/1 Win Bet

Cheltenham 5.45
ARABELLA BOY 4/1 Win Bet

if he doesn't place and he does come out as my strongest profile.

Sandown 2.05 - MANY CLOUDS 7/1 + Each Way

My angles in this race are brilliantly clear. It is still a hideous race though. There is a doubt about his weight but he has serious positives and takes on some horses with a lot to prove. I fancy him strongly. It has not helped that there was a piece about him on The Morning Line this morning and one expert said he couldn't be out of the frame. That's too dismissive but I fancy him a lot
and with 4 places he has to be worth a bet.

all 19 have lost

#2 - Again focusing on Handicap Chases at Cheltenham if we look at 7 year olds carrying 11st or more there have been 71 runners since 1997. How many have won? Zero is your answer.

#3 - Looking at the Supreme Novices Hurdle 15 of the last 17 winners won last time out. From 124 runners who were unplaced last time out none have won !

Where am I getting these facts from? From a free Newsletter you should be tuning into.

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Great for those who want to pick their own.
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up messages for Cheltenham. I hope you enjoy them and will find some value in them as we get closer to Cheltenham.

Many sources will be churning out the same old hackneyed stats and trends.

We plan to provide you with less run of the mill stuff that could provide you with extra edge against the crowds.

We had an excellent Cheltenham Last year. Many members who joined last March stayed and are still with us. They now realize there is not any other service out there that offers anything like as comprehensive and as ground breaking as we do.

my best advice. I will tell you when ready.

a step up in distance. We had a Place bet last time and after being hampered he finished strongly and secured that place bet for us. I'm surprised to see him in this race.

It wouldn't have been my own choice to bet him in this kind of race but I want to not least because he is 16/1 with most firms and 20/1 on Betfair. He probably wont win but given it is such a miserable days racing a small bet looks about the best I can offer. I've backed him small.

Other than that I have written the day off.

better bets at bigger prices and the demands to keep the number of bets up and ticking over which is important as well. In the end I decided to have a Top of the message bet despite a short price.

consider that backclass is a most important requirement in sellers and there is no doubt NOT MY CHOICE has plenty and simply embarrasses his rivals in this field.
This wont be a cakewalk but I think he should be too good for these. I may have been blinded by the backclass issue but I think he will win.

way. I think he is well worth a bet to win this race but its not easy to know when to have that bet as some of his biggest dangers will line up on Saturday. That said what work I have done today left me feeling FIRST LIEUTENANT was a big runner.

Win Bet

Kempton 7.30 - LITMUS 7/2 Win Bet / BYRD IN HAND 7/1 Saver

re in a Chase. I was tempted by a place lay against a few very decent cross country horses especially as he is only around evens to place.

enham 1.50
SANCTUAIRE - Evens without the favourite

Cheltenham 2.25
CAPE TRIBULATION 8/1 Win Bet
GRANDS CRUS 7/2 Saver

Cheltenham 3.00
THE NEW ONE 10/11

Cheltenham 3.35
REVE DE SIVOLA 9/4

day would be a non runner but he seems to be running so a 1 Saver on him is needed much as his connections seem to be betting their other runner. I like FLEETWOODSANDS on paper but didnt want to commit fully to him as he hasn't been getting the job done lately. I will put something on him but my first choice will be a complete surprise in STAMP DUTY.

There is some 25/1 in the offices about him and 33/1 on Betfair. It's a strange choice as he comes from a very small stable. In his favour is he's well handicapped. He's ran twice now after a 4 month absence. He needed his penultimate race yet still managed to come second which was a good effort. Last time he ran well and looked booked for third but he looked like he blew up in the final furlong. He will strip fitter today and I liked that last run as he had the worst draw possible and will have been hurt by that. Its a big ask but I think at 25/1 he's worth a bet and we do have some cover with savers. If this bet loses then the message is a write off but it had to be done this way and hopefully Cheltenham will take over on Saturday and we can get back to quality.

have solid credentials. I would highlight Woolfall Sovereign (1.50) and Sewn Up (4.10) in particular but I don't want to go with a short price bet.

I thought about Yungaburra E/W (3.10) as a possible bet. In the end I decided to refrain from a bet and suggest YOURINTHEWILL as the one bet to highlight.

* Very low drawn horses would worry me
* Look at recent handicaps here with 9 + runners
* The recent winners had the following draws
* 6 7 5 8 10 4 6 7 11 1 7 9 5 4 4 11 9
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 won only 1 of the last 17 races
* NOBLE JACK - Not keen on his drawn 2
* Not with just 1 run since last October
* STANDPOINT - HONEY OF A KITTEN also drawn badly
* SCAMPERDALE doesnt appeal as a 11yo
* Not when having just 1 run since last October
* ON THE HOOF - Cant match him from a 7f race
* AVISO doesnt offer enough
* SPANISH PLUME - Just 1 run in 59 days
* LEAN ON PETE won 15 days ago
* FOLLOW THE FLAG was 2nd in that race
* DAKOTA CANYON was 3rd in that race
* Wouldn't surprise me if the winner came from that race
* DAKOTA CANYON had the worst draw that day
* He may have done too much too early
* At the prices he looked the vale from the three
* Not confident but DAKOTA CANYON is my choice

Selection - DAKOTA CANYON 10/1 + Each Way

from the 3 bets but of course at these prices I will need to to win anything.

won 4 races since 1992
* These four 7yo's had 11 14 16 20 National Hunt Starts
* These four 7yo's had 8 7 4 9 Chase Starts
* These four 7yo's had 2-2-1-2 runs that season
* These four 7yo's finished W W 2 W last time out
* Horses aged 8 have won 6 races since 1992
* Eight year olds had 27 21 14 20 12 34 National hunt runs
* Eight year olds had 9 13 14 10 4 15 Chase Starts
* Eight year olds had 2-1-2-1-2-4 runs that season
* Eight year olds finished W 2 4 2 6 W last time out
* Horses aged 9 have won 4 races since 1992
* The 9 year olds had 30 31 18 33 National Hunt starts
* The 9 year olds had 22 17 8 24 Chase starts
* The 9 year olds had 2-2-1-2 runs that season
* The 9 year olds finished 5 2 4 2 last time out
* Only 1 horse aged 10 has won since 1987
* The only 10yo winner before that was in 1976
* That was Riverside Boy back in 1993
* He had 18 runs 12 in Chases with1 run this year when 2nd
* Avoid horses aged 11 or more
* I have gone back to 1976 and none have won
* No horse aged 11 or more have placed in 16 years
* The last 16 winners were aged 6-7-8-9
* 21 of the last 22 winners were aged 6-7-8-9
* Past winners had the following Run that season
* 4 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2
* Last years winner had 4 runs that season
* The previous 20 winners all had 1-2 runs that season
* Past winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 34 12 20 16 20 10 19 11 33 18 14 31 14 21
* The least experienced winner had 10 National Hunt runs
* Past winners had the following Chase starts
* 15 4 10 9 4 4 16 7 24 8 14 17 8 13 22 12 12 9 14 18
* It is very rare for a horse to win with 3 Chase starts
* There were the odd winners in lower class races
* None managed it in races in Class 2 or higher
* The last seasonal debutant to have won was in 1992
* Past winners had the following Absence
* 24 29 54 34 27 39 46 37 21 20 20 25 24 23 21
* The last 15 winners all ran within 54 days
* Only 1 winner since 1976 carried 11st 12lbs
* It'd take a Gold Cup performance to win with 11st 12lbs
* Go back to 1988 for Horses coming via the Hennessy
* In 23 years the record of these horses is 0-47
* So Far all 47 that tried to win have failed to do so
* The Role of Failures includes Horses beaten at these odds
* 5/2f , 11/2 , 9/4f , 4/1, 13/2 ,11/2, 5/2f , 11/2 , 8/1
* 11/2 8/1, 9/1 5/1, 11/2 , 7/2, 13/2 7/2 9/2 5/2f
* Personally I wouldnt be confident about this stat
* Horses have had 9 extra days recovery from that race
* That must help and it could make that stat vulnerable
* Horses with 11st 1lbs and more have struggled
* Just two have won since the 1994 winner
* That race was run at Newbury a far easier track
* The two winners were Synchronised and Halcon Genelardais
* These were lightly raced with 10 and 12 NH runs
* They only had 4 and 5 Chase starts
* I'd want a lightly raced horse if they have 11st 1lbs or more
* Many winners skipped last years Cheltenham festival
* The last 4 winners did as did 6 of the last 7 winners
* You want a horse thats been laid out for the race
* In this race horses running within 2 weeks are 0-27
* Avoid all horses coming from any Novice Chase
* Most winners had form in Graded Races
* There were only 2 that didnt
* They had 11 + 12 National Hunt runs and 4 + 7 Chase runs
* I'd only want a lightly raced horse if non Graded form
* 10 of the last 11 winners had achieved the following
* They had finished in the first 6 in any of these races
* The English-Irish-Scottish-Welsh Nationals
* The Midlands National -Hennessy or the Cheltenham NH Chase
* There were 3 past winners that were well beaten last time
* These were aged 8 9 9
* They had 8 14 22 previous chase starts and 1-2-2 runs that year



CORAL WELSH NATIONAL

Teaforthree (7/2), Michel Le Bon (8), Viking Blond (8)
Sona Sasta (9), Giles Cross (12), Quartz de Thaix (14)
Universal Soldier (14), Master Overseer (16)
Monbeg Dude (16), Soll (16), Across The Bay (20)
Katenko (20), Cool Operator (25), Major Malarkey (25)
Royal Charm (25), Arbor Supreme (33), Jadanli (33)
Our Island (33), Harouet (40)

* The Welsh National is a Handicap Chase over 3m 5f
* I want to start with the Age statistics
* Bear in Mind as this is run in January thats affected
* Horses are 1 year old than they would have been last week
* Only 1 horse aged 10 has won this since 1987
* That was Riverside Boy way back in 1976
* Avoid horses aged 11 or more
* I have gone back to 1976 and none have won
* No horse aged 11 or more have placed in 16 years
* The last 16 winners were aged 6-7-8-9
* 21 of the last 22 winners were aged 6-7-8-9
* Adjusting for the race run in the new year
* I would be concerned about only horses aged 11 +
* GILES CROSS looks wrong aged 11 absent 266 days
* The previous 20 winners had all raced that season
* GILES CROSS hasnt and is surely too old with that in mind
* JADANLI doesnt offer enough as a 11 year old
* MON MOME makes no appeal as a 13 year old
* TRIGGERMAN is also rejected as a 11 year old
* ARBOR SUPREME has too much to do aged 11
* I don't see him following up his last win
* Not from so far out of the handicap and up in class
* INCENTIVISE shouldnt have the class
* Not out of the handicap and a mark he's not won from
* Most winners had form in Graded Races
* There were only 2 that didnt
* They had 11 + 12 National Hunt runs and 4 + 7 Chase runs
* I'd only want a lightly raced horse if non Graded form
* HAROUET fails that and doesnt look good enough
* His Sire hasn't bred a winner beyond 3m 2f either
* COOL OPERATOR has just won two 0-120 handicaps
* He is stepping up 4 Grades now and in a 0-153
* I dont see where the improvement will come
* Not considering he's exposed with all his wins of lower marks
* KATENKO doesnt have much experience in England
* I think its asking a lot having never ran beyond 3m
* Fallen in 3 of 11 Chase starts he isn't for me
* MAJOR MALARKEY has a career high mark of 133
* His best win came from a Mark of just 121
* He is 0-10 when racing in Class 2 or higher
* Only 1 winner since 1976 carried 11st 12lbs
* It takes a Gold Cup performance to win with 11st 12lbs
* ACROSS THE BAY has a horrible weight in bad ground]
* He is 18lbs higher than his best handicap win
* ACROSS THE BAY is best avoided
* Horses with 11st 1lbs and more have struggled
* Just two have won since the 1994 winner
* That race was run at Newbury a far easier track
* The two winners were Synchronised and Halcon Genelardais
* These were lightly raced with 10 and 12 NH runs
* They only had 4 and 5 Chase starts
* I'd want a lightly raced horse if they have 11st 1lbs or more
* QUARTZ DE THAIX has a tough weight of 11st 6lbs
* He isnt like the previous big weighted winners
* QUARTZ DE THAIX has stamina issues as well
* His Sires had just 1 winner beyond 3m3f in lower grade
* The weight should beat him in the ground over this far
* Go back to 1988 for Horses coming via the Hennessy
* In 23 years the record of these horses is 0-47
* So Far all 47 that tried to win have failed to do so
* The Role of Failures includes Horses beaten at these odds
* 5/2f , 11/2 , 9/4f , 4/1, 13/2 ,11/2, 5/2f , 11/2 , 8/1
* 11/2 8/1, 9/1 5/1, 11/2 , 7/2, 13/2 7/2 9/2 5/2f
* My advice is do not rely on this Statistic much
* This year horses have an extra weeks recovery time
* That must undermine that statistic
* That said its a 23 year stat thats still standing
* It can't be a positive to come from the Hennessy
* TEAFORTHREE comes from the Hennessy my first worry
* He has ran twice this season
* He was beaten 40 and 27 lengths in these races
* Thats a bit too far for comfort in two races
* He won the 4m Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
* Most winners didnt run at the previous festival
* None of the past 4 did and neither did 6 of the last 7
* I'd like evidence he has recovered from that gruelling win
* TEAFORTHREE could easily overcome that and win
* I would be inclined to see him as a positive
* TEAFORTHREE doesnt appeal at the prices though
* Especially with 11st 3lbs a higher weight than ideal
* SOLL also comes from the Hennessy
* It would worry me that he is inexperienced
* He has 4 Chase starts but was brought down in one
* Past winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 34 12 20 16 20 10 19 11 33 18 14 31 14 21
* The least experienced winner had 10 National Hunt runs
* SOLL only has 5 National Hunt runs
* Thats only half as much as the least experienced winner
* SOLL doesn't look the right type to me
* OUR ISLAND is just out of Novice Chases
* Doesnt look Classy enough for this race
* He has never won beyond a Class 4 race before
* He is also a doubtfull stayer
* ROYAL CHARM has had problems over the years
* His stable have a stronger candidate in the race
* I'd worry about the big field in this class of race
* MAJOR MALARKEY isnt well handicapped at the moment
* He is just a journayman stayer
* He is 0-10 when above Class 3 and has it all on here
* MASTER OVERSEER won at Cheltenham 3 weeks ago
* There are positives about his chance
* He has winning form here and stays
* There are plenty of concerns about him as well
* Will he recover from that hard race last time out
* He has been inconsistent recently
* There could be an argument that he is best fresh
* He also ran badly in last years race
* Raised to a career high mark I feel he is risky
* UNIVERSAL SOLDIER has 9 National Hunt runs
* Thats fewer than any previous winner of the race
* He is inexperienced much as 5 Chase starts is fine
* He doesnt have any Graded form though
* Most winners had that and thats a worry
* There were just two that didnt have Graded form
* They had more experience and less weight
* They both won their previous 2 races and were improvers
* UNIVERSAL SOLDIER doesnt have that feel about him
* MONBEG DUDE is lightly raced over fences
* He only has 10 National Hunt starts as well
* All recent winners aged 7 or 8 had more
* He'd be the joint least experienced winner
* Having 5 Chase starts isnt a huge problem
* MONBEG DUDE only completed in 3 of these
* He pulled up after 6 fences in one race
* He fell 4 fences out in another
* He is a bit short of experience
* I wonder if this may come a year too early
* I cant rule him out but he has a bit to prove
* Winning a Graded Chase last time isnt the norm
* SONA SASTA has a lovely weight of 10st
* Happy overall with 16 runs and 9 over fences
* There is a stamina doubt about him
* He has 3 runs in races over 3m 4f or more
* He finished 5th 6th 6th beaten 51 12 29 lengths
* If he stays he is a player but its a worrry
* So is the 7lbs Claimer which I'd see as a negative

S h o r t l i s t


* MICHEL LE BON is an interesting horse
* He won a Novice Chase back in November 2009
* Injury then forced him off the track two years
* He came back in the 2011 Hennessy well fancied
* I made him a big negative that day
* He had just 1 chase start and 730 days absence
* He then went to Kemptons big chase in Febuary
* He had an awful profile that day and flopped
* He wasnt fit or experienced enough as I said on the day
* He then won over hurdles and wrapped up for the year
* This year he was a good 2nd in a solid trial race at Wincanton
* Stamina wise his sires bred 1 winner from 19 over 3m 3f +
* That doesnt really count as it in a cross country race
* MICHEL LE BON has 9 National Hunt runs
* Thats a bit low and all winners aged 9 or more had more
* 4 of those 9 runs were over fences
* The 2011 2007 2006 winners all had 4 Chase runs
* They were younger though so he isnt a perfect match
* All horses aged 9 + had at least twice more chase runs
* Not sure if that matters or not
* Most had more runs that season as well
* Its a worry he has no strong form in long distance handicaps
* He hasnt proven as much as many past winners in them
* Sure he has the ability off 143 but there are worries
* That said if one horse could hack up off 143 it is him

* VIKING BLOND is a very interesting runner
* He's a bit more exposed than ideal for his age
* His 8 Chase starts is fine though
* Horses aged 7-8 had 4 7 8 9 9 13 14 10 4 15 Chase runs
* I think that puts him in quite a good place statistically
* He is from a Sire thats not had a winner past 3m2f yet
* Not many have tried but it is a concern
* My other concern is a lack of proven form in marathon races
* The vast majority of past winners had good form in these races
* VIKING BLOND hasnt also flopped in this race last year
* I can excuse that as he had a very poor profile last year
* He was favourite last year and this year has less weight
* Several positives like good recent form and track form
* I also love the fact he has two good runs this year
* VIKING BLOND has lots in his favour as well

Selection

Final Selection will be given later in the week

experience.

a bet.

Magnanimity 14/1, Saint Are 14/1 , Alfie Spinner 16/1 Roberto Goldback 16/1, Teaforthree16/1, Carruthers 20/1 Duke Of Lucca 20/1, Lion Na Bearnai, Planet Of Sound 20/1 Diamond Harry 25/1, Harry The Viking 25/1, Junior 25/1 Soll 25/1, Fruity O’Rooney 33/1, Ikorodu Road 33/1 Tatenen 40/1

* The Hennessy is a Handicap Chase over 3m2f110y
* There are 20 renewals since 1992
* The last winner aged 10 was back in 1981
* Diamond Edge (1981) the one aged 10 + to win in 43 years.
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* Since 1988 horses aged 10 or more are 0-60 in this race
* Its clear we should look to avoid these horses
* TIDAL BAY is hard to be with as an 11yo with topweight
* Since 1957 the only 11yo winner was in 1967
* That winner had 10st 1lbs some 27lbs less weight
* He is top class on his day but its a really big ask
* ROBERTO GOLDBACK doesnt appeal as a 10yo
* Not when punished 12lbs for his last win
* The size of this field wont help him either
* PLANET OF SOUND had his chance last year
* As a 10 year old with a weak last run he is rejected
* LION NA BEARNAI is also out as a 10yo and first time out
* THE PACKAGE is a 9 year old
* Only 3 of the last 23 winners were as old as that
* Like many his age he's a bit more exposed than ideal
* He's had more runs in Handicap Chases than is ideal
* Two 9 year olds won having raced that season
* These had 7 and 15 National Hunt Starts
* They had 7 and 8 chase starts
* THE PACKAGE has 22 runs and 13 Chase runs
* He is more exposed than any of the past 9yo winners
* I can live with all these things
* Bothers me that he has no form in Grade 1-2 races before
* 16 of the last 19 winners had form in Grade 1-2 before
* There were only 3 horses that did not
* All 3 had Under 9 career starts
* These 3 had 4 5 7 Chase Starts
* THE PACKAGE has 22 career starts and 13 in Chases
* He's far more exposed than all without Grade 1-2 form
* HOLD ON JULIO is a lightly raced chaser
* He's a former Hunter Chaser but so were other winners
* He has no form in Grade 1-2 Class before but thats fine
* All similar horses were like him with under 9 career runs
* Statistically I dont have a massive problem with him
* I do have some other issues with HOLD ON JULIO
* I dislike his Sire's record in terms of class and stamina
* Firstly his sire hasnt bred a winner over 3m 1f or more
* This is much further and there are stamina issues for me
* His Sire Blueprint does not have an impressive record
* He has bred 47 winners so far
* None of these winners came in Listed or Graded races
* The sires only had 1 winner in a Class 2 race before
* That was when HOLD ON JULIO won last January at Sandown
* 46 of the sires 47 winners were in Class 3 or lower
* This is 2 Grades Higher than any race his offspring won
* Throw in the fact he hasn't bred a winner over 3m 1f +
* There must be a serious doubt about him on breeding
* He's lightly raced from a top stable so I respect him
* I don't fancy him much because of his sires record
* JUNIOR is exposed and badly handicapped
* This shouldn't be his race and his aim looks the National
* HARRY THE VIKING ran too badly just two weeks ago
* It would be a shock if he could turn it around so quickly
* Likely to be laid out for Aintree in April he's rejected
* CARRUTHERS has the same problem
* He ran poorly just two weeks ago
* He won this last year but every race since has been poor
* I cant see him overcoming his last run
* TEAFORTHREE was also hammered last time
* Just two weeks on I wanted a better last run
* Smells like a prep race for the Welsh National
* His trainer always said he'd need 2 runs to get fit
* TEAFORTHREE would be an unlikely winner
* DIAMOND HARRY is just unbackable at the moment
* Surely this will be too much for him
* SOLL is too inexperienced to win this over fences
* All 7yo debutants like him had Grade 1 backclass
* Without any Graded form he should fail
* FRUITY OROONEY is on a career high mark
* He was beaten miles last time out
* I cant see a case for him especially coming from 2m 5f
* He's more exposed than any of the last 18 winners
* Without Grade 1 or Grade 2 form I cant have him
* MAGNAMITY comes from a 2m 4f race
* Not a good sign but this horse fascinates me
* I think he's being laid out for the 2013 Grand National
* He has lots going for him at the moment in that race
* I think he will be shortlisted in April with a low weight
* You should bet him to win the National now at 130/1 +
* MAGNAMITY is a little exposed
* He has ran this year in a Graded Chase
* No past winners ran this year in any non handicap race
* He also comes from a 2m 4f race not a positive
* MAGNAMITY isnt like any past winners
* FRISCO DEPOT is 8 with two runs this season
* I looked at all 8yo's that had raced that season
* There were 3 winners with this profile
* Two won last time out and FRISCO DEPOT didn't
* They all ran within 2 weeks and he didnt
* Not strong trends here but he isnt an ideal fit
* It's not ideal he comes into this race after a Fall
* SAINT AIRE is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* There has only been one 6yo doing this since 1980
* That winner was State of Play in 2006
* That horse was lighter raced over fences
* I cant rule him out as not many have tried
* Seasonal debutants aged 6 are 1-14 record since 1992
* There were 3 that came second though so he's respected
* I do have some worries though
* Not sure I see Tim Vaughan as a Hennessy winning trainer
* Many winners ran in Grade 1 races at Cheltenhams festival
* SAINT AIRE only ran in the Novice Handicap Chase
* He was thrashed in that race when a 33/1 outsider
* Thats a big worry with past winners from Grade 1's
* ALFIE SPINNER rated 138 has bottomweight
* I'd have to question whether he has the class to win
* He's only won a small filed Beginners Chase in 7 chases
* That said his profile is close to the 2008 winner
* That horse was a 25/1 shock winner who had more weight
* I'd also argue the 2008 winner had won a Graded Chase
* ALFIE SPINNER- Probably right at 20/1 I question his class
* DUKE OF LUCCA - Not a negative but average profile
* Not convinced he has the class to win this
* I'd also be worried about softer ground for him
* FIRST LIEUTENANT is unsafe from a Grade 1 chase
* That hasnt been the norm and its not the right profile
* That said he is very smart and comes off a good run
* I wouldnt rule him out much as none won with his preparation
* He has lost his last 6 chase starts though
* BOBS WORTH has a smart profile
* He is a seasonal debutant 7 year old
* He has Grade 1 form and is unexposed
* Horses with that profile won 4 past renewals
* They won in 2001 2005 2007 2010
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 career starts
* BOBS WORTH is a close match with 10 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* We know 10 of the last 14 winners had 3-7 Chase starts
* BOBS WORTH is fine with 4 Chase starts
* Two of the 4 came from the RSA Chase as he does
* BOBS WORTH has an excellent profile
* My main concern are these
* He isnt a big horse and he hasnt run in a big field chase
* His 4 Chase runs come in fields of 9 7 6 4

but is worth a modest bet. The rest of it is there to have a play around with but with very soft ground and with a sand free day there are limitations to what I can do.