s he did when winning 12 months ago beating Cai Shen who is a shorter price today without showing any better form between now and then. Premio Loco is hugely consistent and given what favourite Farraaj has shown thus far, he will have to improve to win the race from this pair. "

coming up, but that for me is a license to print money surely. 9/4 for DB to get in the first 5? Really?

little cheated out of one of the main races of the week.

This event will be no more than a lap and a half of honour for Sprinter Sacre as there is just nothing to give him a race. Last years winner is currently third favourite on Betfair at 22/1. That is some indication of how much better Sacre is.

For that matter Finians Rainbow should not even be going to Cheltenham, since following up with a win at Aintree last season, his two runs this term have give n great cause for concern and he just doesn’t look right.

It may be that the field will be decimated further from the nine that remain in the line up at this stage. A number of these hold entries for the Ryaniar including Sizing Europe,winner of this in 2011, runner up last year, at 11 years old, the longer trip of the Ryaniar might even suit him better now, as he will only be playing for not inconsiderable place money in this race.

Cue Card and Wishfull Thinking are not guaranteed runners. Sanctuaire can be very good,he can also be pretty poor and it just depends on which Sanctuaire turns up on the day, he is not the type of horse I would want to bet, so I would plump for some EW interest on Somersby.

The reason I say Each Way is because absolutely anything could happen. Sprinter Sacre is so frighteningly exuberant over his fences, and whilst arguably the best jumper and certainly the fastest we have ever seen, if,god forbid, anything happened and he came down,we would have a right mess on our hands and many that have defected to the Ryanair will be kicking themselves for not staying put and picking up a Champion Chase.

Somersby is a reliable old stick as opposed to Sanctuaire, and on further defections expected might just a a sneak of value at 33/1 with Ladbrokes

lly when they don't fall on the huge international friendly breaks they can offer value. Fingers crossed

ing our money where our mouths are, so as always with games with Barcelona involved we have to look at other markets to see if there are bets to be had, and deeper into the form to see if there are any idiosyncrasies with the teams. the one I think I can come up with is that Barca have a simple approach to football, simply outscore your opponents for three points. They do concede regularly, and Spartak can get at them and notch a goal whether it be consolation or not, it will count for the both teams to score bet I shall be having at 6/4 with bet365"

19:45 Bayern Munich v Valencia Bayern Munich - Yes (Clean Sheet) 2.2

"I was looking at this game and finding no obvious value but eventually, came to the conclusion that i fancy Bayern Munich to win the game. nothing particularly adventurous in that statement, even if Valencia are on of the better teams in the competition, but I felt that this would be a tight match with few goals and in fact none from Valencia. I looked at Bayern to win to nil to find a price of 2.2. When looking then at the clean sheet option just in case it ended goalless, i was surprised to find the same 2.2 price for Bayern to just keep Valencia out. It covers the 0-0 and looks to be the bet to be had in the match."

19:45 Braga v CFR Cluj CFR Cluj 7.5

"There is usually on shock result in any given days football program, the trick is identifying which one it will be. on this occasion I am very much hoping I have un-earthed the one in the Champions League tonight in Portugal as CFR Cluj travel south and take on Sporting Braga. I feel the odds compilers have completly underestimated a side that beat Basel in Switzerland to qualify for this stage of the competition, and in what I think will be an unpredictable match, the bigger price for the away win has proven too tempting. The Arsenelistas did beat the side they are nicknamed after last season 2-0 so they do have some quality and good form in front of their own fans, but CLUJ come into the game with no fear and nothing to lose. I expect this game to throw up the shock in Manchester United Group. If they do win, Look ou United, they travel to Belarus next"

19:45 Celtic v Benfica Draw 3.4

"The last four times these two sides have met in Europe the game has gone to the home side, each have won a game, 1-0 and 3-0. Tonight i think the run will be broken and this on will end up a stalemate. neil Lennon may have a little more to concern himself with in the SPL with motherwell somewhat surprisingly at the top of the division, but still a great deal of onus will be put on faring better in Europe than Celtic have done in recent years and squad rotation will come to the fore. I think Celtic will put up a good fight, but Benfica showed huge improvement in European football last season compared to several previous years. They will not roll over with ease, and this will be feisty game in front of a huge partisan crowd, that will ultimately end up all square"

19:45 Chelsea v Juventus Chelsea 2.5

"Did you know Juventus have not been beaten in an away match for some 24 games. That is some record for Chelsea to break tonight should they wish to take all three points against the Italians. But they managed to win each and every one of their home group games last season on their way to germany to lift the trophy and can get the 2012/13 campaign underway with another 3 points. Juventus lack recent experience in this competition and that too, will count against them."

19:45 Lille v BATE Borisov Draw 4.4

"I feel Bate could be the side to cause an Upset in this group this season, the start of that journey begins in France this evening in group F. A trip to Lille can give the Belarusians a point to get them on their way. Lille are now without Eden Hazard, a hole that will take a hole lot of filling. They have picked up only 6 points from a possible 15 in Ligue 1 and are not yet in top form. On that basis, expect the Zholto-Sinie (Yellow-Blues), to manage a draw and a point in France. 4.4 at Betvictor in my view is very big!"

around this season.

Thus Aiden O Brien is able to throw his Montjeu progeny, 2000 Guineas and Derby winner Camelot over the St Ledger trip. His breeding alone suggests he should be able to last the extra 550 yards on top of the Derby trip to secure the first Triple Crown since Nijinsky on 1970 under Lester Piggot, and I for one will not be arguing regarding that chance following a solid Derby success.

We are in for a once in a lifetime, maybe even the very last time this feat will ever be attempted, experience, and it should not be missed (this guy says with a sense of irony, based on the fact I shall be making the 350 mile round trip to Doncaster, only to probably have to leave before the big race is complete to attend a prior arrangement that can not be avoided!!!). Oh the pain!!!.

Anyway, whilst I shall be thrilled should 42 year old feat be emulated,I shall be equally enthralled should Henry Cecil be able to push Camelot close with Thomas Chippendale, or indeed, spoil the party completely. He was beaten by several in this line up in the Great Voltiguer, but with a slowly run race,things were never going to workout for him, so today, with what I am 99% sure will be a true run affair, he can repeat previous performances of indeed finishing in front of the likes of Thought Worthy, Enke etc. Noble Mission is no dud of a form line either.

I shall be playing the w/o Camelot market to this end, and probably EW there too, and just to back up my confidence that Sir Robert Ogden has a great chance of landing this Doncaster Classic, with the assistance of Tom Queally in the plate,with a horse priced at remarkable value, I shall also be staking points to win and place in the WITH Camelot market too. Either way, if Camelot justifies favouritism, or my selection cam make the frame, (preferably second for my various bets!), I shall enjoy the remainder of my journey back South with equal measure

concern would be the jockey on board today but we can guarantee that if Aidrian had been on board we wold not be getting the price we are which sits currently in double figures at 10/1. Stepped up to ten furlongs last time he put in a very much below par effort and back at the mile today if putting in the same level of run as we saw on his penultimate outing at Haydock we could be in the money. Three pound higher today, that penultimate performance had that in hand."

sts and he's out for me. |It leave me with a choice between two. Chris Walls eight year old Royal Rock, who is as good as ever despite his age, but i feel comes into his own in the Autumn time. This may be coming a bit early for him but he has been running as well as ever of late, I can see him winning his next race in September or October though. Richard Huges partners Producer and he is the pick of the bunch. The 3yo was only a neck behind subsequent winner at this level, Lethal Force and although Producer has yet to run on this track, four wins on the ups and dows of Epsom on good ground give the impression he should enjoy conditions."

end sit atop the table with 6 points, and may very well remain there after Saturdays action, which would make things interesting at Stamford Bridge 5.30. Wednesday night saw them take all three points in a topsy-turvy game at home, when taking the lead only to fall 1-2 behind to newly promoted Reading. But in a carbon copy of Manchester City's game against, again, Newly promoted Southampton last week, the home side found a brace of goals, and in fact a fourth to run out comfortable 4-2 winners on the night, and with 5 assists already this season, a wonder-buy in Eden Hazard.
Let's preview each of the top flight games:

Swansea City v West Ham United

Swansea, if taking all three points in their first home game of the campaign would find themselves top of the very division they are one of the favourites to find themselves relegated from. Odds on their relegation lengthened last week as you would imagine having gone to Loftus Road where they had NEVER recorded a win previously and saw off Queens Park Rangers in emphatic style by a 0-5 score-line. The Swans were 2/1 to be relegated before the game and have eased out to 5/2 now. West Ham did enough to take the points against Aston Villa last weekend, but Villa were poor and the Hammers are on the road today. Swansea last hosted West Ham at the Vetch in 1983, going down 1-5, they lost the same fixture a year previous 0-1. I can't predict which way this will go, but if Swansea do win, we can expect that relegation price to drift further, 3/1+ maybe, at which point we may have a price to start thinking about trading with. They have an easier start to the season than they do from the end of October through to Christmas. A period when they will have to face, Man City, Newcastle, Liverpool, Newcastle, Chelsea and Arsenal. Pick the right moment to back Swansea for relegation between now and October and we could find a nice trade to be had.

Aston Villa v Everton

The outstanding and perhaps most surprising statistic about this game is that Aston Villa have not conceded to defeat to Everton in the Premier League since March 2006. That came at Goodison Park, and we have to look a further year back in time to find the last win for Everton at Villa Park. Both have been ever present in the top flight during this period and suffered varying levels of fate during each season, perhaps Everton significantly faring better than Saturdays rivals. With Everton seeing off Manchester United on Sunday and Villa putting in a lacklustre performance against West Ham a day earlier, it may be no surprise that the Toffeemen are the favourite to take the three points from this game but with the stats showing this would be a first for some 6 years and twelve games. Bear in mind also that eight of those twelve unbeaten matches have gone to a draw. Everton's last 10 away games in the Premier League have seen them win just ONCE, Lose TWICE and DRAW the remaining EIGHT games! Make of that what you will with Villa's last nine homes games containing FIVE DRAWS. On those stats alone you would have made a healthy return if the draws had been priced Odds-on! Currently 3.40 on Betfair for the outcome.

Manchester United v Fulham

Nothing much to conclude with this game other than Fulham will not be repeating a season opening 5-0 victory, and United will be smarting from defeat to Everton. No one wants to meet Alex Fergusons men after they have tasted defeat. Fulham are poor on the road, Manchester United are virtually un-opposable at home, and the Cottagers will be hard pressed to find the net. Man Utd to win to Nil would be my simple call.

Norwich v Queens Park Rangers

Both these sides suffered the ignominy of 5-0 defeats in their opening games. Perhaps worse for QPR as they did it in front of their own fans against a Swansea side promoted alongside them two seasons ago. Is it silly to consider this a relegation 6-pointer already? Probably, but if one misses out by a point at the end of the year and the other goes down, fingers will be pointed back to August. Mark Hughes continues to recruit for Geriatric United at Loftus Road; one thing is for certain, if they survive this season, they will have another close season of rebuilding to do with the quite vast number of over 30's he now has in his squad. If there is some positive to take from his current strategy, it's that he is recruiting experience, and for the short term that may just be enough to consign the Canaries to a second consecutive defeat. Let's hope Delia stays in her seat and away from the PA. QPR have not won at Carrow Road since 008 in the Championship and Norwich have certainly had the upper hand since, winning four of the five subsequent meetings between the sides, including twice at Loftus Road. Whilst I do look at stats heavily, as was proven last week with Swansea's first ever win at Loftus Road, they are there to make a mockery of us sometime. I shan't get caught out this week. QPR can complete a stat busting away win.

Southampton v Wigan

Wigan have won four of their last seven Premier League away matches, drawing twice and losing just once. It has to be considered that those results came in a relegation escaping run at the end of last season and they were pretty limp against Chelsea last weekend. Southampton could not have had a harder introduction to the Premier League, finding themselves coming from behind at the Etihad to lead Manchester City 1-2, only to capitulate and lose the game 3-2. Whilst they may take some heart from the nature of the performance and they would have been going to the Champions expecting little more than no points, they may come into this game feeling a little hard done by. Not an easy game to call but one element Southampton can bring into the Premier League this season is their scoring record at St Marys last season. They were nothing short of prolific, with an average of over 2 goals per game at home. Wigans scoring record away from home was just 1.05 per game. Given that by the end of the season there were just six league positions between the pair one would have to fancy the firepower of the Hampshire club to be the significant potential factor in this match up. Consider also that Manchester City conceded 2 or more goals at home only three times last term and Southampton have already notched that particular boast already.

Sunderland v Reading

Sunderland had an excellent start, shutting out Arsenal at the Emirates, Reading will be hurting after Wednesday night at Stamford Bridge and look as they will struggle this year. Straightforward home win call.

Tottenham v West Brom

I for one shan't be pushing my way to the virtual counter to back Spurs at 1/2 to win this game. It will be some time in fact before I wil be investing anything in AVB's team from a positive point of view. I'm not doubting the man himself, but I shall want convincing before investing any hard earned. I will admit to a cheeky little bet on Spurs finishing outside the top six on the announcement of his appointment. They have, what on paper, looks a fairly easy run over the next four games before going to Old Trafford, and nothing but three points a game will be expected by the board and fans I'm sure. I think there will be a stumble or two along the way, and after West Brom took apart Liverpool last weekend, this will not be a straight-forward task either. Confidence will be high with the Baggies, despite losing both games against Spurs last term. The White Hart Lane outfit are a different side under a very different style of manager now.

Chelsea v Newcastle

This is match of the day for Saturday and promises to be a humdinger. Chelsea are looking strong with Eden Hazard in the line up providing no fewer than five assists already this term. The Magpies will have to find a way of controlling him, but whilst doing so, may be taking eyes off other threats which permeate this strong looking Chelsea side. And how about this for a statistic. Chelsea have not beaten Newcastle at Stamford Bridge since 2007. Papa Cisse scoring a wonder-brace last season to send the Champions League winners to a 0-2 reverse, and prior to that they have recorded a 2-2 draw after the 3-4 win in which Shola Ameobi scored the last minute winner to recover the three point from a prior 1-3 lead in the game. I will be concentrating on the goal markets in this one and expect lots of action.

Stoke City v Arsenal

This game finished in a 1-1 draw last season, and Stoke are notoriously difficult to break down at the Brit. Questions will of course be being asked of how strong the Gunners are now without Van Persie, and without doubt his departure is going to have an effect. Arsenal are just too unpredictable for me to get involved in betting on matches in which they involved. Stoke haven't lost at home in the Prem in seven games, winning 2 and drawing five, underlining how tricky they are to defeat at home. Additionally the home side have a fantastic record in this fixture. I can't call it, but predict another game with goals.

Liverpool v Manchester City

Over Evens for Manchester City to subject Brendan Rodgers to the harshest of starts to the season is a fairly tempting price. No Aguero for the Champions will do little to weaken the squad and Liverpool will still be smarting from the 3-0 defeat handed to them by West Brom. Liverpool have lost four of their last seven Premier League home games. Need I say more?

ying for favouritism. I have this one a point clear and capable of giving Seb Sanders a winner on the night at Godowood. Good handicap places at Epsom and Folkestone sandwhich an unplaced effort in a bigger field here at Goodwood in a race that quite frankly was beyond him. in this company and with few rivals, he has a chance to add to his maiden win at Windsor. Where he would go from here is another matter as six pound extra on his mark would make things tricky in class 4"

d 9/4, i think there are better options to take him on. Keepax is interesting, if only for the fact there was very early money for the Wall runner. That seems to have gathered pace throughout the day and at 10/3 for his chance, any value that might have been there looks to have gone and I wouldn't rate his chance as high as this. Jane Lachette has some nice runs in the book, but when looking closer at the opposition, this will be a tougher ask tonight with take me to my final selection and Hidden Justice. Amanda Perrets runner has gone well here twice and not been beaten far, the handicapper has done nothing with the mark and with Jim Crowley back in the plate I shall take some of the 9/2 on offer at Sporting bet"

out of sync with the general averages for the particular division and look to a short term strategy to capitalise as things level up.



Followers of the blog that have been with me from the start, and in particular following the football through last season may remember a couple of pieces I covered last year where the Npower Championship Division in England had a position after several weeks whereby there was a distinct lack of 1-1 scorelines. It was considerably below average for the division, and indeed any division, being in general, the most frequently completed scoreline. It was only a week or two after this, that there were two weekends were three 1-1 draws were scored from the 9 matches played on the Saturday, thus redressing the balance. 3 from 9 is a 33% strike rate and therefore a 2/1 chance. Now we know that 2/1 was not the “true odds”, but given the the average were well behind, it could be taken that there would be a higher probability of such an occurrence if the averages were to even out. On this basis, we were able to back 1-1′s at prices of 11/2 – 6/1 on what turned out to be 2/1 strike rates. Those brave enough to permutate the nine games would have managed in the region of 42/1 for doubles and 275/1 for trebles.

I will be reviewing as many leagues, high and low, throughout Europe over these early weeks to see if a similar opportunity can be uncovered once again and in particular for those scorelines that occur most frequently, such as the 1-1′s of the world.

I will give full statistical backing, historical facts and figures, and the choice to follow me is entirely yours. But rest assured, I will not be writing these thoughts for no reason. I can assure you that when I highlight an opportunity, it is an opportunity I will be following with my own cash.

Join me in the search of the correct score law of averages, if we don’t get rich, we will sleep and dream of percentage figures if nothing else

uchable one" and he comes into the race looking for a thirteenth consecutive victory, but we also have to consider that he is being uppe to 10 furlongs for the first time. I have no doubt that he will get the trip, the question is "how well will he get the trip?". We know for sure that those up against him, or at least some of them, can and will get the distance and indeed have done so to a very good level previously, and Aiden O brien is surely aiming to be the first to depose Frankel from his all to familiar winner enclosure spot.

Here's my thought. Frankel's closest encounter with defeat was when going out like a fruit cake in the St James Palace stakes at Ascot when Zoffany very nearly got to a weakening Frankel. (zoffany of course is ballydoyle too so O Brien will know exactly what is required). So could it not be significant that both Winsdor Palace and Robin Hood are in the race to go at it for a mile and ensure a strongly run race which could just find Frankel giving it a bit too much early doors. We have to think his nature will make him want to go with them, leaving him open to something with the confirmed stamina to stay strongly in the closing stages. A few of these would fall into that catergory including Twice Over and even Sri Putra. Farhh has come up against Frankel on more than one occasion and his best performance to date would have to be registered as over this trip when runner up to Nathaniel in the Coral Eclipse.

AOB is certainly aiming St Nicholas Abbey as the one to knock Frankel from his perch and whilst arguably his best form has come at a mile and a half, with a strong run race on the Knavesmire, this mile and quarter could see a turn up against the long odds on fav. I would be just as happy to see Frankel make it thirteen from thirteen, but it will not be often you'll get an opportunity to get Saint Nick at such a price, and for the sake of a single point investment, I think it's a bet worth taking. Thats the way i see it,the AOB string setting the pace to catch Frankel out late on with the Abbey."

ro was sticking the most unlikely of goals in the back of the QPR net to clinch the most ridiculous of Premier League titles to date. Only a blink away from Reading, Southampton and West Ham making the leap from Championship to top flight English football, the former as Champions, the latter through the Play-0ff lottery. With the Euro’s and the Olympics squeezed in between, it seems the break has been short and the talk about everything but the Premier League. (with the exception of the “will he-wont he” RVP saga, which has thankfully come to a close with a move to Manchester United).

Onto Match Day One then………….

HOME WIN OF THE WEEKEND
My interest starts at Craven Cottage where Fulham can get off to a flyer against Norwich City. The Canaries acquitted themselves admirably last season and did themselves proud. Second season syndrome beckons and Fulham are just the side to begin the struggle that will be the 2012/13 season for Chris Houghton’s side. No one would claim that Houghton has had the easiest of introductions to football management, but sterling work at both Newcastle United and Birmingham City have seen him land, if not a more stable, and difficult job in keeping Norwich up. The Carrow Road outfit have spent some 5m this summer, quietly paying for Richard Snodgrass from Leeds and Micheal Turner from Sunderland, whilst Javier Garrido has been loaned from Lazio to give some extra strength and experience in defence. – Whether Clint Dempsey appears in white on Saturday or not is now uncertain after slapping in a transfer request on Friday. Destination almost certainly Liverpool sometime next week. Whilst Adam Johnson has gone on a free, as has Danny Murphy to Blackburn where he is joined by Danie Etuhu for whom around 2m has exchanged hands. Norwich got only one point from Fulham last year and lost this corresponding fixture by a 2-1 score-line. I’m not sure they will vene get a goal on Saturday as all three points stay at the Cottage.

Fulham home win 17/20 with BetVictor

DRAW OF THE WEEKEND
The match which has got my attention for Draw of the Weekend is the one that will take place between Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspurs. The first thing that strikes me is Newcastle will probably be looking forward to this game far more than Spurs. I am sure that AVB will be more than happy to walk away from St James’s with a point in what is now a tough looking game. Stats are a handy little tool sometimes, and can also be cause for a grumble or two on a Saturday evening. one that sticks out for me is that Newcastle have failed to beat Spurs in the last five meetings, the last twice the games have taken place in the North East they have both ended all square. Saturday ca make a hat trick of draws. I shall be as bold as to predict a score, I think it will be tight, I think it will be entertaining,and I think Cisse is one to watch in the goals market, but keeping it simple, a share of the points is my call.

Newcastle v Spurs DRAW 23/10 generally

AWAY WIN OF THE WEEKEND
Manchester United will not want rivals City stealing a charge as early as the first game of the season as they take on newly promoted Southampton on Sunday afternoon. United will know the outcome of that game before they kick off at Goodison Park against Everton on Monday night, but it would be only the bravest of punters, or the more disillusioned of Southampton fans that would be predicting anything but a win for City at the Etihad. So to keep pace, Alex Ferguson will have to outsmart David Moyes and once again gain all three points against the Toffeemen. Something that a succession of managers have been able to do on premier League opening day over the past few seasons. In the last four years Everton have failed to take a point from their first match. more remarkably, three of those four games have come at home including a 1-6 reverse against Arsenal and last season going down 0-1 to newly promoted Queens Park Rangers. RVP is now a Man Utd player, and with the likes of Rooney, Macheda, Berbatov, Wellbeck or Hernandez to join him in attack, any side that comes up against the Reds this season will have their work cut out to keep a clean sheet. On that basis, Everton will have to score at least once to beat them, or twice to win the game. Utd will be too strong by far.

Everton v Manchester United AWAY WIN 10/11 generally I think is a great price

TREBLE OF THE WEEK
There will be little in the way of money making available should one be looking at the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City playing home matches to kick off their seasons, with prices in the region of 2/5 and 1/6 available respectively for home wins on Saturday and Sunday, singles will not be getting anyone rich. Around 1.63 for the double still feels short, so how about this? Ignore Chelsea’s first game at Wigan and look to Tuesday when they host Reading at Stamford Bridge, chuck in the 1/4 for the home win there to make up a treble and you’ve got an Evens Shot at Bet365.

Arsenal (Sat), Manchester City (Sun), Chelsea (Tues) – Home Win Treble and EVENS with Bet365

ck on most peoples part,and it certainly would have sent a few opening day multiples down, the opening game of the season and at Goodison Park for the Toffeemen this term may not be such a shock should all three points go to the away side.

That side just happens to be managed by Sir Alex Ferguson and therefore happens to be Manchester Utd who will be looking to get off to the best start possible with their title rival and neighbours Manchester City kicking off their campaign at home to newly promoted Southampton, where nothing but a comfortable home win can be predicted. United won their first five matches of the Premier league season last year and in fact 14 of their eighteen domestic league fixtures up to Boxing Day.

The opening day win came against West Brom last term and whilst Everton arguably could be considered tougher opposition this time round, i feel the same result will out. Predicting how the game will go between the two sides is a different matter altogether. Various outcomes have been seen, from tight games decided by a goal to thrilling, high scoring draws, in corresponding fixtures. I shall refrain from predicting the number of goals, let alone a correct score and simply play just under Evens for the away win"

the Etihad! This match took place in October last season and ended with a 2-2 draw. Spurs going ahead twice only to be pulled back, finally with a Shoma Ameobi equaliser four minutes from time. It may have been predictable at that stage of the season to see little coming between the sides at the end of the season, although 8 week from the end, one would have been forgiven for thinking Spurs would have finished something more than the four points clear of Newcastle that they did. It is only Monday before the match and the Premier League transfer market is far from over I am sure, but there will once again be little between these teams despite Spurs no longer having the Redknapp factor. I could only favour Newcastle for a win on that basis had I to choose one outright winner and better than 6/4 is temptation in itself, the biggest worry for me is the lack of market activity for the Geordies, the "ins" for Spurs look promising, and whilst there have been a few outs, certainly the Modric one hasn't happened yet. Whether he plays or not is a totally different story. A safe draw to open the campaign for both sides, and probably goals again, so don't rule out another 2-2 share of the points"

nd can get off to a good start by taking all three points against Norwich as they begin their second successive campaign in the top flight. Taking League averages into account, Fulham home form last season would register as "above". Of course, nothing more would be expected given their final position in the table. Norwich, whilst almost certainly doing even better than expected last year did have the questionable record of having conceded at least once in each and every away game including in the corresponding fixture. That game finished 2-1, which incidentally was the most frequent home score at the Cottage last term with 5 games finishing by that scoreline. a 15/2 chance may be worth taking although goals re often few and far between in season opening matches. The draw at 3.7 is a teaser, but even closer to 3/1 would make me look closer, whilst 15/4 the away win doesnt do anything to tempt me in. I would be happy with a home win and i think the 1.83 may well be shorter come Saturday. A big question mark still hanging over West London is whether Clint Dempsey will be playing in white or red on the opening weekend. His much muted move to Liverpool may still be on the cards, m mind is still set for the same outcome regardless"

n the Stewards Cup and goes again today from a mark 3lbs lower than the 2011 renewal. There remain as one would expect a huge number of talented horses, who, on their day have the capabilities of taking the event, but Macs Powers shows the consistency in running that I look for for races of this nature. 12/1 offer EW options, but as always I shall be on the nose and expect him to return to the level of form he was showing this time last year and step on on his last outing at Ascot when runner up to Shropshire who he meets on six pound better terms."

amends here at Sandown today.

Paddy Power are offering money back should a selection finish second to Farhh. More of which I'll come back to later. Nathanial is the another that many have been ta;lking about, mainly because of the weather and the softening of the ground. Officially the going has been given as good to soft, i would not be surprised in the least if that were to change to soft with no mention of good after the first race. That will of course suit Nathaniel, but if there is one doubt, it would have to be over the trip as he did seem to be tapped for toe last time when dropped back from 12 furlongs.

Also a dirty scope prevented him making his seasonal debut in May, i would want a tad more than 3/1 to buy him in the race. Looking through the remainder of the card I was about to make the decision to just watch the event, when i spotted this relatively unknoen quantity entered from Marco Botti, with Ryan Moore booked to ride.

Closer inspection shows an almost perfect form book, the only blot being a lowly finish in the Italian Derby, but looking at the remainderof the form, thre is no doubt, this is a horse of respectable ability. At 8/1 i think he is worth a go, especially with Paddy Power, 2nd to Farhh means money back. "

dutched 1-1 with it. I'm convinced of a draw, but also note that the final has never before finished goaless at 90 minutes.

Balotelli has to be respected and 7/1 to score first is also in the book, whilst I have covered the 90 minute draw too.

All in all, I've backed more than i thought i would, indeed, more than i should have too, but am looking forward to the game more than i thought i would.

iously at Newmarket and on the Knavesmire. She was beaten five lengths into third in the Lowther Stakes at York last August and although sixth and not any trouble to the leaders at Newmarket in September in the Chevely Park Stakes, she looks like a miler and can return to a better level of form under Jamie Spencer today. She'll not want to be too far off the pace in a field of this size, but previous winning form on the course can count as she looks to stela the race from some of the bigger yards represented in the closing race of day two"

e of writing and i think will stil do so at the off. He was last seen on the turf last season winning on this course over 7f in really taking fashion before being pout away for the winter and reappearing on the all weather at Lingfield when upset by one of the outsider and looking in need of the run. The outing should have put him just right for coming back to Ascot for this step up to a mile. He has run the trip previously at Newmarket finishing second to Albaasil who has since gone to improve over in Dubai. A close second at Goodwood was also a good run with Kieren Fallon in the plate. Today Johnny Murtagh takes over and although coming from stall seven on the day can get another win"

y heads the betting from Carlton House. The latter was last seen winning an arguably below par Brigadier Gerard stakes at Sandown last month and justifying odds on odds of his own. I have an inkling we have certainly not seen the best from Godolphins Farhh just yet, and at odds approaching 10/1 he has to be considered a value option in the field and with just three runs in the book to date is tricky to confidently assess. He has only run into class 2 level as yet, and whilst each run has shown massive improvement from the prior one, he could end up being anything. He takes on a Aiden O'Brien yard who, by their own high standards, must be considered as having a spectacular season already, and with four group 1 victories in the form book already, it is a brave punter who takes on So You Think. These look the only three to have realistic chances in the race, on softer ground perhaps Colombian could have been considered, but this should go to the favourite"

ve an alternative bet for the race. Henry Cecil will probably not top what happened for Warren Place yesterday with Frankels win, but Chachamaidee can add to his Festival tally by scoring here. Runner up in the race last year and then dropped back to 7f for the Oak Tree and Sceptre stakes at Goodwood and Doncaster respectively. Once stepped back up to a mile in the group 1 Sun Chariot stakes at Newmarket, she found only Saphresa too good. She has good, if not spectacular form in group company, Two wins and and 2 places from 5 Group 3 outings, two places from three runs in group two compan and a place from 2 runs in group 1. She has a level of consistency to be reliad upon and may have been unlucky in running into one too good on a couple of occasions. She may finally find a race winnable in this event, and is taken to win her first group 2 race."

and land one of the three from the first four places the yard managed. Quite amazing, Reply and Daddy Long Legs managing to secure third and fourth respectively, Richard Hannons Trumpet Major, a well beaten favourite down the field. There was one runner in the field who prevented Ballydoyle from completing the clean sweep, When Bryan Smart had somehow trained his Danehill Dancer Colt Foxtrot Romeo to get involved and run into second on the day, and whilst others were falling by the way side, he kept on well for a runner up spot. Certainly no fluke, with good horses truley beaten behind him he gets the benifit of Richard Hughes in the saddle today,and at 14/1 with PAddy Power to run a length better than he did last time and this time edge Power out, with his rival and victor only 7/2, I have been well and truley dragged into thinking this is the best option. Don't get me wrong, Power is still the one to beat, but with a potential extra ten points return, perhaps I'm going the Smart way?"

rm of Sentry Duty lining up, but preference of the pair goes to last years winner. From that win last season he attempted a follow up at Newmarket off his new higher mark and failed to make the places, one hesitation in making this selection today is that he goes off the same mark with the handicap in full effect, but checking out last seasons hurdles form, i would suggest he has improved a tad from the previous season anyway and could well take the rise in his stride on his return to Ascot and carry top weight to victory. Simenon from WIllie Mullins has had one previous tilt at a race at Ascot, a group 3 affair Autumn Stakes back in 2009 when stabled with Andrew Balding, There is no doubt that whilst under the handling of Mullins over hurdles, there has been improvement in that sphere, but i wouldn't be too hasty to follow back at this meeting.Al Khawaneej, will be looking to complete a four timer for David SImcock under Jamie Spencer, but this is quite a step up in class from the previous three victories. I would be surprised if he is up to this mark just yet. Elyaadi has a couple of good flat runs ion the form book from last year but both were achieved without really troubling the main protagonists. Moterey is interesting at a price, not written off at all, his improvement has been very steady and ultra consistent to date, i just wonder if he has quite enough more in the tank for a contest of this nature., Certainly one for the notebook and at 14/1 with BEtictor a consideration for a place bet at least. But ultimately, Veiled has shown the class to win this race previoulsy, has had another year to grow into the mark he carries, and can score a double in the Ascot Stakes"

a and in doing so Actually putting out Dick Advocaat's side, tonight surely the same fate will not befall Joachim Lows men. Assured in their first two games, with solid, if not spectacular wins over Portugal and Netherlands, Mario Gomez is surely their star player thus far.

One stat, and I'm not sure if this is accurate or not, was that in total, he has been in possession of the ball for only 23 seconds in those two games, but in that short time has managed to put the ball in the back of the net three times. I think that's what you call predatory. Denmark would appear to have their own predetor in the unlikely form of Niklas Bendtner, scoring both goals in the 3-2 defeat to Portugal in their last game, he offers some hope to th Danes, who, dont forget, got into this competition as a wild card and went on to win previously.

One should never write off any team with a mathematical hope of going through, and they can progress with a draw if Portugal lose but i think as usual the Germans are growing into this tournament, and will once again show their organised and efficient might in sweeping aside their Scandinavian rivals and progress to the quarter final with 9 points"

layer and having to play a full second half with just ten men and come from a goal behind from the first half against Poland to scrape a point from an early equaliser in their second half. indeed they might have taken all three points iof not for a missed second half penalty when the Polish Keeper was sent off only for his replacement to save the spot kick. The Czech Republic have the dubious record of suffering the heaviest defeat thus far in the competition, going down 4-1 to Russia in their opening match. They did make the Russians look good on the night but did have some good possession throughout without creating much, scoring once themselves in the 4-1 defeat. Greece have scored in each of their last seven matches, once in each game it might be noted , and although the Czechs conceded four in the first game it certainly could have been more, so I confidently predict Greece to score once again against a weak Czech defence. The key to the bet is what the Czech may possess in way of an answer, I predict it to be little and they could find themselves the first side to be eliminated"

ing all three points in the 7.45 kick-off. The bookmakers dont seem to be able to split the pair clearly, with slight favoritism going to the home nation at 2.7 with Bet victor and Sweden at 2/1 with STan James. The draw is a shade over 9/4 and as such offers me little value, as i think this game is key for both sides as they may be happy with points aginst boh England and France as the fancied pair of this grouping. One would have to concede that Sweden have had the better run up to the finals, managing four consecutive victories following the 1-0 loss to England at Wembley in November. The win in Croatia probably better than the one against Bahrain in the two away matches, and home wins against Iceland and Serbia would have been no more than expected but still had to be completed. Ukraine have lost their last two games against Turkey and Austria, and that has to register as a concern despite home advantage in this match. Wins against Isreal and Estonai dont really come up to scratch although they did manage a 3-3 draw with Germany at the end of last year. Sweden managed to amass an impressive 24 points from a possible 30 in qualifying, but even then still found Holland above them in the group, but the haul does show they are not to be taken lightly in this group by Ukraine or indeed, England and France. We have yet to see a goalless 90 minutes played out at the finals and i think that we will have to wait even longer as this match promises some more. [b]Over 2.5 at 2.29 looks a big big price, or alternatively we could opt to lay the unders at 1.65!!![/b] I'm surprised that Sweden are not favourites for this game, impressive in qualification, their hosts have not had to even do that, Sweden look a great value bet to win in 90 minutes, and I'm certainly going to take the OVER 2.5 price too! "

with the hosts playing against 2004 winner Greece. Don't forget that the Greek side started the 2004 campaign with an unlikely win against the hosts Portugal 2-1 that year in the opening game, before beating them again by a single goal to nil in the final to land a shock win. One might argue Greece are not the same side as back then, but in the same breath you would have to consider their perceived chance of winning the competition this time round no better than in 2004. There is a temptation to consider a cagey draw for the opening game. Sure, no team wants to lose the first group game but that result simply seems to obvious a choice. Poland have been great at home leading up to the Championships and in fact, they have not lost in six home matches, winning five and drawing the other. Also to be fair, all being friendlies, as they have not had to qualify as hosts, and we have to go back to 2009 to find their last competitive match. That is something to be considered, along with the best side they have played in a friendly in that run as Portugal, with whom they drew nil nil and prior to that a loss has been recorded back in November against Italy.
Greece have lost just once in thier last 21 international fixtures both home AND AWAY! That is some form! So perhaps there are good arguments for both sides having the upper hand in the opening game. Coming to the head to head record between the side we have to go back to 1987 and seven matches between the two nations to find a game in which Greece gained a result. Three visits to Poland have resulted in losses, they also lost in Athens to Poland, whilst two 0-0 draws in Greece have been recorded all in friendlies, including the last time the two sides met in March 2011. Suddenly i find myself thinking Poland are the bet!!. There will of course be a sell out crowd, and largely partisan support in this opening fixture of the tournament, but rather than gain an advantage, the weight of expectation may be against the hosts, along with lack of competitive games. It is not unusual to see the hosts of international competition crumble under the cocktail of non qualification and home advatage. In topping the qualification group ahead of a good Croatia side, and amassing some 24 points from a possible 30, Greece should not be underestimated in the group stage and are more than capable of giving Poland a very tough time and causing another Euro opening game upset. At the prices, 2.1 Poland, 3.3 Draw and 4.5 for a Greece win from Stan James, (depending on how much they will let you bet!!!), a Greece victory looks to be the value bet in the 1x2 market. It might also be worth looking Greece to win to nil, (even better, for a bit of safety perhaps back NO for both temas to score, only once have they both scored in the seven games since 1987, or indeed, go for a correct score with Greece running out 1-0 victors.

of Chilworth Icon to run out the winner of this listed two year old event. Euxton Hall heads the market for Richard Fahey after a decent enough debut at Haydoick, but I dont have it down as good enough to warrant a price as short as this. Mark Johnstones Heavy Metal is more backable at 7/2 on his hat trick bid. The step up to 6f could be the key for Chilworth Icon today, he had no chance with the winner last time out but was staying on nicely, another 220 yards in this and he could be hitting top gear"

hard early on for Paul Hanagan, and thus dropped out of the race. A very promising two year old though for the Haggas yard wining the Acomb stakes at York before managing a third place Group two appearance at York Doncaster behind Trumpet Major and Red Duke. Im sure he has not gone as backwards as it may seem from the Newmarket run and if back in form will make a mockery of 14/1 odds with Bet365. Dont forget, in the Champagne stakes at Doncaster, he had Daddy Long Legs behind and one would have to concede he has come on since then"

bys now 7 year old has proven he has the turn of foot from the off to score on this track. He beat his stable mate Confessional by a head last year and the same rival will oppose today, the difference being this time, Whilst Captain Dunne is on the same 105 mark, Confessional wil be racing three pounds higher. After wionning the race last year the remaining events he took part in ere either group or listed class, whilst two outings this termhave seen him run out of steam after leaing early, both thiose races have come on soft ground which would not have suited, a return to firm fast ground today will only be in his favour"

aced in the saddle today by Frankie Dettori. Not that the switch is the decision for making this choice in a hot listed race at Newmarket. The grey has not won since making his debut last April at Windsor but has run in some very hot races, including a third place in a group 2 here and runner up spot in the group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown. He comes up against some good rivals today, mostnotably john gosden THE NILE, although his debut run has not been franked since, although he dd better on reappearance on the AW at the start of May. Aljamaaheer tops the larket on reputation alone, he has something to prove on the racetrack. DOuble figure odds for Silverheels looks too high and i want to take advantage"

around 3 lengths behind. Today hurry Up George is only giving 7lbs, he meets Democrates a couple of pounds better off for a couple of lengths too. Democrates was just behind Mince on the day and finds himself five pounds better off today. Hurry up George was drawn wider in the race from stall 10 when his two rivals came from 1 and 4. Today that pair come from 6 and 7 and the selection is wider still in 16. Still at the prices, i think the selection is much bigger than he should be"

ROSS made his debut at Newbury where he never threatened in a race where Faraahn finished runner up. He reappearance o the Knavesmire at York howver reads far better. Not overly fancied at 18/1 on the day Dane O'Neill settled him in behind the leader, tracked him, asked for an effort a couple out and led within the last furlong and went on a scored bya couple of comfortable lengths. It was a far more impressive performance, and from that race we find multiple winners and some high class performers in behind.Athens has since gained some black type and Crusade who was further behind went on to win the Group 1 middle park stakes at Newmarket."

Munich on Saturday night. Home advantage will be a huge advantage for the Germans; a look at the stats backs up the view.

Whilst my view is that Bayern will ultimately lift the trophy on Saturday, most probably by winning withing the 90 minutes, they could also finish off Chelsea in extra time or even if the match emulates Bayerns Semi final against Real Madrid and goes to penalties. English teams have one only one of the last eight European finals they have contested, and Chelsea have played thier own part in that Statistic in recent years. Expect some celebration from the Chelsea fans though as I do expect them to get on the score sheet at some time.

Relative European Form
Let’s first look at the last eighteen games, (9 each) the two sides have played in this competition. I’m specifically looking for draws to negate the chance of this game frustratingly going beyond the final whistle. Bayern Munich have not recorded a single draw in their last 9 games, winning seven, losing twice; whilst Chelsea have had two stalemates in the same 9 matches. Of course, the 2-2 draw at Camp Nou that saw them through to this final, and then we go all the way back to November last year when Genk held the blue to a 1-1 score line in Belgium. What is immediately noticeable is that Chelsea have scored in every game including the two defeats, and in fact, that scoring run can be extended back t the last 13 Champion League matches they have played. On this basis alone, the first bet I will make on the game is both sides to score. 1.9 on Betfair seems fairly generous.

Home Advantage for Bayern a Strong Element
Normally when it comes down to knockout competition, or tournament competition, one would not look too deeply into home and away form, but ofcourse on this occasion Bayern Munich, whilst not playing in front of an exclusively partisan home crowd, will be in their home stadium and familiar surroundings. If we now look at the relative home and away stats for the Champion League contests we see a very different picture. A picture many Chelsea fans may want to avert their eyes from. Bayern have won all of their last nine home matches, conceding just 4 goals in three matches, scoring 21 and that run can be extended to 14 wins in 16. The two defeats notable came against the same Inter Milan side. Chelsea on the other had have won only twice in the same 9 away match run, and whilst the win against Benfica may deserve some kudos, a 0-1 revers against Copenhagen doesn’t rate top class. All of a sudden if any confidence of a Chelsea win is in evidence it is dissipated, although again, they have scored in the last eight away fixtures including the two draws and three defeats. Paddy Power and SkyBet go 5/6 the home win (90 mins), it’s is another option.

A Quiet First Half

Given that I think both sides will score and Bayern will run out the winners, there are a host of other considerations to make. One might think that taking EVENS for Over 2.5 goals would be pertinent. The one reservation I have on this is that I think the first half will be very tight, as Bayern patiently weight up their options and work Chelsea out. In fact, it could even be Chelsea that put the ball in the back of the net first. In my never ending quest for as many stats as I can find, I have unearthed something to back up the thought that the first half will be quite on the goals front. Bayern Munich have played at home against English teams on eight occasions since 2001, and in five of the eight games, there has been no more than a single first half goal, Chelsea have played on German soil six times since 1999, and ALL SIX games have had less than 2 first half strikes. Furthermore, take a look at Chelsea’s last 30 away matches in all competitions and we find that no fewer than 24 games have contained 0 or 1 goals in the first halves. UNDER 1.5 First Half goals can be backed at 1.46, or perhaps the more speculative may want to choose a half time correct score between, 0-0 (2/1 BWin), 1-0 (29/10 Betvictor) or even 0-1 (13/2 Coral). I have to say, the Coral price of 13/2 Chelsea 1-0 at half time is a temptation in what could become quite a portfolio of bets for the match.

Goalscorers
Goals need Goal Scorers. Who is most likely to net on the night? Mario Gomez (Bayern Munich) is the obvious choice, but 9/2 for first Goalscorer doesn’t get the investment juices flowing, Paddy Power go 13/10 on the anytime market for him however, and that is far more attractive. And for Chelsea do we need look further than Drogba? 9/1 generally to score first is decent, whilst 3/1 for anytime is an option. 4 times a first goalscorer for Chelsea in Europe this season, the odds are good.

Turnaround
If, dear reader, you have patiently followed me this far, you will have picked up a certain amount of contradiction in the highlighted bets thus far. If i were to follow my track thus far, and things were to go to my predictions, the halfway point will be reached in Germany with Chelsea 1-0 to the good with a Drogba goal the difference between the two sides. But you said you were confident of a Bayern win early on Marc? That’s right, and indeed I still do! What we have in Bayern Munich is a side that just works away at an end game. In the second leg against Real Madrid in Spain we saw Real go ahead with two early goals from Ronaldo. The key here is to simply watch Bayerns reaction to looking like going out of the competition at this point. One would expect a degree of urgency, some searching, hopeful long balls forward, passing and rushing; but Bayern showed none of it. They got hold of the ball, kept it, slowed the match down and took stock of the situation. Carefully and methodically they regrouped and understood the task in hand. In all honesty, I for one was surprised at how quickly the approach paid off, Robben getting a goal back on 27 minutes to level the match on aggregate, eventually enough to take them through extra time and to the penalty shoot out. At no point did Bayern look rushed or harried into decisions, organised and machine-like in defence and not overly committal up front, they knew that preventing Real scoring another was more important than scoring another themselves. It was that measured, organised and typically German engineered approach that saw them through. What this is all leading up to, is that IF Chelsea go in at Half time in front, i feel there is every chance that Bayern can turn the game round in the second half. Suddenly 28/1 for Chelsea/Bayern on the HT/FT market looks worth a speculative interest.

Final Score
It could be anything. previous meetings between the sides are limited, the last twice, the home sides have won, Bayern 3-2 here at the Allianz in 2005,whilst the earlier reverse fixture went to Chelsea 4-2. Goals could be on the agenda once again. Forget 1-0 Bayern Munich, They have played 30 games at home since recording that scoreline. OVER 1.5 Goals for the match is 1.36, for it is buying money and will be my main bet. Just 3 of the 30 Bayern home games have ended with a single goal or less. Finally, I’m going all out by predicting the full time score as well. I’ve narrowed down the options to, 2-1 (8/1 Betvictor), 3-1 (14/1 generally), 3-2 (28/1 generally), and perhaps, 2-2 (20/1 Betvictor) just in case. It would be mad to cover all four given the other bets I have now on the game, so I am going for the 3-1 and just in case the 20/1 for the 2-2 is big.

I don’t recommend a mirror of all my bets, but please feel free to pick and choose as you see fit. With full cover, one of the larger odds will have to land to show profit. Enjoy the game, and only bet what you can afford.

Champions League Final Bets: 9pts total

Both teams to score @ 1.9 Betfair

Bayern Munich win (90 mins) @ 5/6

Under 1.5 First Half Goals @ 1.46

Over 1.5 Goals (90 mins) @ 1.36

Half Time Score 0-1 @ 13/2

Drogba FGS @ 9/1

HT/FT Chelsea/Bayern @ 28/1

Correct Score 3-1 @ 14/1 & 2-2 @ 20/1

Knavesmire and score me a juicy return at 20/1. He's done a bit of everything has this 7yo gelding. Flat racing, hurdling and chasing, which has been thelatest escapade, and he has been doing that with some success too. A very versatile horse as you can see from the form. Best on a laft handed track, best at this distance, best in the spring, there are a number of hurdlers in this field who are better than he over obstacles, but on his flat form he holds as good a chance as any, and is a speculative pick at very easy to back odds"

wed some coltishness on 3yo debut on the all weather at Kempton at the beginning of the month. Hopefuly with that outing out of the way he will remember what the task in hand is and return to the form that saw him place twice in his nurseries. He remains a maiden of course, hence his entry here but is favourite to shake off that tag and i tend to agree. Of the seven lining up he would looks to have the better profile, is close to home and is certainly the best of a very poor bunch. In fact, I think 6/5 is a giveaway price and he should be odds on"

is his representative making a UK debut after four previous outings in ireland. In heavy ground at Gowran in February he fell on debut, but showed he was young enough to take that in his stride when reappearing at the track a couple of weeks later and in doing so made runners up Spot behind Maggie Neary over a 2mile trip. Since then he has been stepped to take on 18 anf 19f since. Finishing again runner up on his penultimate outing, but finally getting into the winners enclosure on his fourth attempt when over 19f at Kilbeggan he showed great fighting spirit in the finish to beat White Feathers and Westhaven. Malin Bay just has favouritism in the markets as i write. Making a debut for Nicky Richards he has some good form in the book but will giving away 13lbs to the selection over 3miles. A question too much and Cause of Causes can score"

me while. He has dropped back to a mark of 106 for this which remains some 4lbs higher than the Catterick win, but recent performances would suggest he is responding to being dropped back and another outing at Southwell after a decent enough run last time out would seem the right place to be making a claim. I might kick myself slightly if the outsider of this bunch, Le Roi Rouge were to win under Lucy Alexander, I have looked long and hard at his chance here which i dont think is as big as 12/1. That said, i find it difficult to make an argument for him to win, therefore he is passed over. Heavenly Chorus is going the right way again and anything approaching the form he showed in three runs at Mussleburgh in November and December would put him right in the mix at an easy to back 15/2"

Milton Keynes 0-2. Take that result away and you couldnt squeeze a rizla between the pair over the course of the season even when comparing their respective home and away form. In fact, the result last week only further muddies the water as Milton Keynes have nothing to lose and simply have to score tonight. The stats actually say they will as well, given they have failed to score in only one away game for the entire season. The one thing we have consider though is the fact that they will be going forward looking for a goal, or ideally 2 to match the away goals Huddersfield have i the bag and how open that will leave them at the back. It is difficult to see them winning this match 2-0 to level things us, but I have to have some confidence in Milton Keynes getting on the scoresheet. There isnt any value in backing Huddersfield to concede a goal at 1.36, so perhaps, both teams to score would be a better option? 1.67, i dont much fancy that either as a 0-1 scoreline would be good enough for the home side to still progress. MK Dons get a quarter ball on the Asian Handicap for Evens and even that doesnt especially float my boat. Huddersfield will ultimately be happy with any king of draw on the night, and i think that is probably the best route to take. Not going to predict a score in this, could be anything from a 0-0 to a 4-4, so straight draw on the 1x2 at 5/2 is my shout"

aylor or bloody Pricewise. PASTORAL PLAYER has shown to run well fresh in the past and despite being at the top of the handicap today can overcome the big field with Daryl Holland on board. Possibly considered a better 6f horse than seven, he squashed those thought with a course and distance win last October by two and a half lengths from Smarty Socks,and even though his mark has risen to 107, i believe he has the beating of this field. None of the remainder look really well treated, Kakatosi has fallen back to a previous winning mark, but with so many improvers in the field, he will need to run up to his very best and then some. Pastoral Player is a stand out for me and he looks idealy drawn in stall 12"

right for this test ion the tight track on the roodee. Stepped up to six furlongs for his final race of the 2011 campiagn it looked clear she would still want the minumim trip and i think she has a good shout at equally good odds from stall 4. Her runner up finish in a listed event at York last year hasnt worked out as well as one would want, but Richard Hannons Gusto, in fourth that day has run with credit in good company over the winter and spring, albeit mainly on the all weather. In what i think is an open handicap, despite being 17lbs above her previous winning handicap mark, i think she holds a better chance than her price suggests"

oubt, that despite the small field of just four that go to post, i would have been interested in michael Stoutes Sea Moon had he run, and i am ready to oppose the more obvious choices of Brown Panther and Memphis Tenessee with Vivacious Vivienne. She is the elder of the group at 6, (all the rest are 4), so there are no secrets with her, but she has listed form at both the trip and on soft ground. Brown Panther has a win on good to soft in the book, but in handicap company although one can not dismiss his two group runner up finishes. Memphis Tenesse will be travelling the furthest he has to date, albeit by a single furlong, but this ground will be a first. Calico Cat has to be considered a no hope, so at the prices, one that has performed in a class below this over trip and on the ground at 16/1 looks to be worth following. She gets her fillies allowance as well, which can only be of benefit and i take her to upset the odds."

etween this pair would have to go to the former but at the prices, i have one I am far more interested in. Galacian won here last November in what looked an OK race and has subsequently run with credit without winning in much tougher races, just on that basis the priceof 10/1 ould look to fofer some temptation to oppose,Uprise. that is until we notice that a length back in that race was Gabbiano and closing as well giving away four pounds on the day. The same weight difference applies in this event this evening and at double the price at 20/1 with BlueSq has to make the betting slip for me. An obviously easy choice for each way betting, you know me, Im on the nose and I'm napping to boot!"

is five outings to date. he looks likely to go off at the head of the market once again here, but it is not without reason. As far as any of these runners that have form in the book go, he sets the bar, and a bar that is considerably higher than the others, so the only real risk for me are those that are making their debuts. Lord Gaga from Dandy Nichols and Micheal Easterby's Fame Again represent that catergory and whilst any significant market moves would garner some interest, i think we have good opportunity to gain some profit Prophesy"

ams in the premier league in the 2011/12 season. Surely thats an offer not to be missed? On paper that certainly looks to be the case, when you then say, Newcastle have to be meeting Manchester City who are looking to win the whole division then it sort of makes you think again. but the numbers do not lie. It is home form which has put City in the position they are in, and ultimatley the away form that could cost them the chance of topping the league. On the bare numbers, the pricelooks great, although one has to consider a small fact that may not have been noticed. Manchester City have not been losing at half time in any away match in the prem this season. Always a first time though right?"