Mick Hammond
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About Mick
- Rank: Newbie
- Points: 95
- Joined: Mar 12
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- Following: 11
- Followers: 15
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Mick Hammond (95)
5:25 Aintree - Deireadh Re - EW @ 18/1
Yet another race with so many runners from the Cheltenham festival and quite a few of those come here with a bit of form and have a good chance.
But for me i have to go for a fresher horse whobypassed Cheltenham but could easily have ran there and done himself justice.
Deireadh Re has only had 5 runs in Britain and has won 3 of them, in June of last year he won a 3m maiden hurdle @ Worcester by 2 and a half length, the 3rd placed horse was well behind.
He then went to Ascot and couldn't quite give 5lb to a decent debutant, but they finished well ahead of the 3rd place.
His best run was back in December when looking well beaten he stayed on really well up the hill @ Cheltenham to win going away, he won again on Boxing Day.
He flopped last time out @ Newbury, although something didn't look quite right and he hasn't seen a racecourse since.
He is 5lb better of with Gullinbursti but if something was amiss then he should be in the mix here.
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Mick Hammond (95)
4:50 Aintree - NB - Pepite Rose @ 100/30
Al Ferof was well fancied for the Arkle and struggled home in 4th place, Menorah didn't do much better, he finished 3rd.
Menorah finished just under 4 lengths ahead of Al Ferof and they couldrun a close race again today.
Cristal Bonus was struggling when pulled up in the Jewson Novices and will need to improve on all form if he is to win here.
Alasi has been running well in Mares only races, including 4th behind Quevega in the Mares Hurdle, again a personal best is required here to beat the boys.
Pepite Rose is 4 from 4 in Chases, her first chase was over 2m 1f @ Bangor and she won easily by 12 lengths, she then went to Newbury and eased to a 15 length win.
Her next run was 3 runner race and again she won easily, only by 5 lengths but it could have been 15 if she was pushed out.
Last time out she ran her best race to date, she won a class 1 chase over 2m 6f by 9 lengths and never looked in danger.
This trip is ideal for her and she gets a nice 7lb mares allowance from the boys and she can win again
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Mick Hammond (95)
4:15 Aintree - Free World @ 12/1
Again we almost have a rerun of a Cheltenham festival, this time in the shape of the Grand Annual, no fewer than 8 of that field contest this race.
Tanks For That ran the best, finishing 2nd and as aresult is worse off with every other runner that day, also worse off is 3rd placed Kumbeshwar.
Edgardo Sol has been running in hurdles races for the past 5 races since winning here over 2 miles back in October, he runs today off a 16lb higher mark than he did that day so will to improve a lot to figure here.
Free World was travelling well and getting ready to challenge when he fell 5 out in the Grand Annual, he won in August off 144 and runs today of 135, the same rating he had at Cheltenham when running well until falling.
He can get back into the winners enclosure today over his favoured trip.
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Mick Hammond (95)
3:40 Aintree - My Way de Solzen @ 7/1
My Way De Solzen ran for the first time in 2 years at Hereford and you would tyink he not been away from racing at all.
He won by an increasing 9 lengths and proved that he is still capable of running in a top grade handicap off his current mark of 135.
Gwanako is still only 9 and has won both of his starts this season, he won over 2m 4f twice at Sandown, both easily enough and is the current favourite for the race.
I expect some improvement from My Way de Solzen even though he is a 12yo, he has only had 6 runs in the last 2 years and he can take all the beating in this.
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Mick Hammond (95)
3:05 Aintree - NAP - Burton Port @ 9/2
Riverside Theatre has won 2 out of 2 since returning from injury, he won the Ryanair Chase at the festival, with Medermit a length back in 3rd.
He has yet to run this far, only once has he tried 3 miles and he was a distant 2nd behind Long Run although ran better than the rest.
Medermit was fortunate to win @ Exeter at the start of the season when Captain Chris unseated his rider, he has been game all season without getting his head back in front.
Hunt Ball has gone from strength to strength this year but we have to remember that when he won his first handicap back in January he was running off a mark of just 108, he runs off level weights today against horses rated in the 160's.
Burton Port ran a fine race when 2nd after such a long Lay off back in February behind Long Run, he improved again to finish 4th in the Gold Cup, he tired approaching the last.
Now on a flatter surface he can finally get his head in front after 2 years.
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Mick Hammond (95)
2:30 Aintree - Hinterland @ 10/1
4 of the first 6 from the Triumph Hurdle re-oppose again here, add into the mix Pearl Swan and we might have a cracking race on our hands.
Triumph Hurdle winner Countrywide Flame has had a long old season, he had his first hurdle run back in October after having a flat campaign too, he might have come to the end of his season.
The horse that interests me is Hinterland, a long time fancy for the Triumph Hurdle, he missed the race after disappointing in a handicap hurdle back in January.
He will be a lot fresher than most of those and a lot of Juveniles struggle at Aintree after having a good run @ Cheltenham
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Mick Hammond (95)
2:00 Aintree - Won In The Dark - EW @ 100/1
Big Buck's isn't worth backing at these odds, he will get beat one day as he cannot go on winning forever, until he does i am happy to look at the place market for his races.
Smad Place ran a great race @ Cheltenham to finish 3rd, 9 lengths behind Big Buck's but that might have taken a lot out of him with him being only a 5yo.
Won In The Dark finished 3rd in this race last year at 66/1, like last year he was kept away from Cheltenham and ran in the same race at Cork.
He doesn't win very often but always seems to run his race and never gets well beaten, in 2010 he finished 4th here behind Kyber Kim.
Another run like either of those 2 will see him grab a place again.
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Mick Hammond (95)
2012 US Masters EW K.J. Choi 66/1
K J Choi is a player who has put in some superb efforts here, he has also put in some shockers, he has played here every year since 2003 and in those 9 years he has failed to make it to the weekend on only 2 occasions in 2006 & 2009.
Last year he finished tied 8th but was tied for 2nd going into the final round but could only shoot par and dropped away, he has 2 other big finishes here in the past.
In 2010 he finished tied for 4th place, he was tied for 3rd place after 3 rounds and finished with a 3 under par round but other players shot better rounds, he has finished even better than that, in 2004 he finished 3rd overall just 3 shots behind Phil Mickelson.
66/1 is a great price for a player with proven form on this course
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Mick Hammond (95)
2012 US Masters EW Geoff Ogilvy 75/1
Geoff Ogilvy is a player who likes to play at Augusta, he has played in the last 6 Masters events and made the weekend in all of them.
In 2006 he finished in Tied 16th place, 2007 he finished tied 24th, 2008 he was tied 39th.
In 2009 he finished tied 15th, in 2010 he finished tied 26th and last year he finished tied 4th, before last years event he had played in 6 events and got the weekend in 5 of them, this year so far he has played in 3 and got to the weekend in 2 of them.
As well as a 4th place finish last year he also finished 4th in the Canadian Open and 3rd in the BMW Championship and followed that with a tied 11th in the Tour Championship.
He is a very big price to put in another fine effort this year
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Mick Hammond (95)
2012 US Masters - EW Angel Cabrera 120/1
A former winner here with another fine record at this event, Angel Cabrera has been playing here since the year 2000.
In the 12 years he has played in this tournament he has only failed to make itto the weekend in 2000, 2004 & 2005, of his other 9 plays his worst finish has been tied 37th in 2007.
He won the event in 2009 and also has 4 other top 10 finishes in this tournament, 7th place last year, tied 8th in 2006, tied 9th in 2002 & tied 10th 2001.
Last year he missed 3 cuts before playing at Augusta and finishing 7th, he has missed 3 cuts this year to date, but they have been in all 3 events he has played in.
He might be out of form at the moment but must be given a chance on a course he loves
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Mick Hammond (95)
4:30 Lingfield NB Dorothys Dancing @ 2/1
Dorothy's Dancing has to carry a 6lb penalty for a recent win only 7 days ago.
All of her last 4 runs have been good efforts and she has been placed in all of them, she comes into the race with byfar the best form of any of the runners.
Ryan Moore takes over from George Baker to ride for his dad, this will be the first time he will have ridden her.
3 of her 4 career wins have been here at Lingfield and she has won twice over the minimum distance.
Lesley's Choice is the only danger i can see, after his good recent effort from a new low mark of 60 but i will stick with the horse in the best form
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Mick Hammond (95)
Nice winner there
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Mick Hammond (95)
4:10 Hereford NAP Is It Me @ 7/1
His run only 4 days ago was his best for quite a while, interesting that they run him again so soon.
This is the quickest he has been turned out again since he was turned out 5 days later for Tony Carrollto win in July 2008.
His last win in 2009 was off a handicap mark of 135, he runs today off just 93, the same mark he ran so well off on Saturday.
He has only ran twice over this distance and finished 2nd & 3rd, his 2nd was on good/firm going and his recent 3rd was on good going.
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Mick Hammond (95)
3.15 Doncaster - Amitola @ 50/1
Amitola has plenty of early pace and should take the field along for at least half of this race.
She is fit from an All Weather campaign and can stay at the front entering inside the final furlong. Shehas only ran twice over a mile and won the first of those runs at Lingfield off a mark of 88, she made all and was never headed and won by a length.
She won over 6 furlongs in September 2010 when leading from the front, she was briefly headed that day but battled back for victory.
She will need to produce a career best effort to win off a mark of 91 but if given a strong enough ride from the front she can grab at least a place.
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Mick Hammond (95)
Torquay to beat Barnet @ 11/8
Barnet are slowly dropping into the relegation dogfight, they have only won once in their last 11 league games which has seen them drop to 20th, only 4 points off bottom spot.
Torquay on the otherhand have put together a very good run and now sit 2nd in the table, both Crawley & Shrewsbury have a game in hand on Torquay and are both 1 point behind so it's vital that Torquay win games like this to open up a gap if they want to go up automatically.
Torquay have won 10 games away from home this season, including 3 of their last 4 and have beaten both Crawley & Rotherham away recently.
Torquay have only lost 3 of their last 18 league games and will be confident of grabbing another vital 3 points here
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Mick Hammond (95)
1-0 to Torquay, that will do for me
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Mick Hammond (95)
Brocklesby Stakes - 3.50 Doncaster
Bill Turner (W.G.Turner) has had 1 runner in each of the last 10 runnings of the race, and his record in those 10 years is better than any other trainer.
He has had 4 x winners, 1 x Runner Up,1 x Third, 1 x Fifth & 1 x Sixth.
His 4 winners were -
2011 - He's So Cool @ 8/1
2008 - Sallys Dilemma @ 7/1
2006 - Spoof Master @ 5/2
2002 - The Lord @ 13/2
He has only 1 entry this year - Just Past Andover by Amadeus Wolf (who was himself a good sprinter)
3 of his winners were ridden by 3lb claimers, he has a 7lb claimer on this fella
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Mick Hammond (95)
Gilles Simon to beat Andy Murray @ 11/2
Andy Murray hasn't been playing his best Tennis so far this year, he has been playing ok but was beaten in Indian Wells by world ranked 95 Guillermo Garcia Lopez in straight sets.
He has only played once match here so far as his last opponent pulled out through injury, although he did win that match quite easily.
Gilles Simon beat Jurgen Melzer in straight sets to set up this clash with Murray, he hasn't dropped a set yet in this event.
The world number 13 got to the quarter finals in Indian Wells and can surprise the world number 4 by beating him here
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Mick Hammond (95)
Real Madrid -1.75 on the Asian Handicap
Apoel have only scored 7 goals in the entire competition so far and will struggle to score tonight against the current best team in Europe.
Apoel only scored 6 goals in their 6 group games against the likes of Zenit St Petersburg, Porto & Shaktar Donetsk so they are unlikely to be scoring 2 goals here.
Real Madrid have scored in every game and would love to get a decent win tonight so they can rest players for the 2nd leg as they play Valencia at home the following weekend in a vital Primera League game.
I think Madrid can easily win here by 2 goals which will give a profit although a 3 goal win will give maximum profits
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Mick Hammond (95)
Turned out a lot tougher in the end but a winning bet
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Mick Hammond (95)
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Mick Hammond (95)
I have been looking at a few trends for the Grand National and have across the following -
I know 3 years isn't really a trend BUT horses rated 144 or higher have filled 11 of the 12 places in the last 3 years, as better horses take theirchance in the race, this trend alone eliminates 44 of the 82 entrants.
Since the war only horses aged between 8 & 12 have won the race, this eliminates another 3, which now leaves 35, of those 35 left Scotsirish is sadly no longer with us and Massini's Maguire is ruled out injured which leaves 33.
9 of the last 10 winners were Irish Bred so we can take out another 11 horses which now leaves 22.
8 of the last 10 winners were aged either 9 or 10, they also accounted for 14 of the other 30 placed horses, this eliminates another 8, we can make that 9 as no top weight has won the race in the last 10 years
This leaves a short list of 13 remaining, but we can also eliminate another 7 horses as the last 10 winners had all run within the last 50 days.
This leaves us with just 6 but of this 6 we can eliminate another 2 as 8 of the last 10 winners were allocated a weight between 10-05 & 11-00 when the weights were published.
No winner of the race in the last 25 years had failed to win over 3m+, which helps us eliminate another and as 1 of the 3 left is classed as doubtful we are left with just 2 runners
Rare Bob & Hold On Julio
Rare Bob can be backed @ 50/1 & Hold On Julio can be backed @ 40/1
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Mick Hammond (95)
Thursday's Cheltenham Bet
1.30 - Peddler's Cross @ 7/2
2.05 - Sonofvic @ 11/1
2.40 - Rubi Light @ 15/2
3.20 - Oscar Whiskey @ 9/2
4.00 - Hector's Choice @ 12/1
4.40 - Brackloon High @ 12/1
Selections 1,2,3,4 -2,3,4,5 - 3,4,5,6 - 1,2,5,6
4 Bets @ Lucky 15, Place Trebles, Place Fourtimer
6 x EW Fivefolds & EW Accy
Here's to 6 winners, LOL
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Mick Hammond (95)
5:15 Cheltenham - Harpsy Cord EW @20/1
Harpsy Chord is lightly raced for a first time handicapper, he has only had 7 runs in his life, 3 of his 7 runs have been in chases in Ireland.
On his chasing debut he tired on the run in and had tosettle for 3rd place behind the useful Rathlin, that was over a furlong further than today's race on Heavy ground.
Next time out he finished 2nd, again behind a useful horse, this time it was Willie Mullins Soll, finishing 4 lengths behind but a long way in front of the 3rd horse home, he also turned the tables on Aitmatov who had finished in front of him on his chasing debut.
He finally won a chase at the 3rd time of asking, over 2m 2f @ Gowran Park he beat 17 other runners to win with a bit in hand, the runner up has won since. He gets in here off a mark of 132 which gives him a decent chance
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Points Genie (1470)
5 very nice previews Mick. Thanks for posting them! Bonus points pending ;)
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Mick Hammond (95)
Thanks mate, posting about a bet is the easy part, it's getting the bloody thing to win that takes up the time, lol
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Mick Hammond (95)
4:00 Cheltenham - Sizing Australia @ 5/1
Last years Champion Sizing Australia is rated 5lb higher than when winning last year, he is rated 145 this year compared to 140 last year.
He has had 2 runs over hurdles to get him primed forthis race, which is also the route he took last year with a hurdles run before winning this race.
He didn't win last years race by much but did stay on really well to win the race and according to reports he is in top form again this year. The 2 Willie Mullins horse are the horses to beat, but Uncle Junior only beat Garde Champetre by 2 lengths off level weights in November and has to give him 4lb today.
Scotsirish took the wrong course @ Cheltenham in December but might have won the race if he had not, so much has been said about reigning champions winning again this year but nobody has mentioned Sizing Australia and i think he can win again
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Mick Hammond (95)
2:05 Cheltenham - NAP Cue Card @ 13/2
I was originally going for Al Ferof in this race but after listening to Colin Tizzard's bullish comments about Cue card i have decided to follow suit.
Cue Card has never ran over 2 miles in a chase, although more of his wins have been over this distance and has won twice @ Cheltenham over 2 miles. He hacked up in the bumper here in 2010 and won a novice hurdle in November 2010 before finishing 4th in the Supreme Novices hurdle.
He made all to win easy last time out despite making a mistake, Sprinter Sacre has never ran in a strong chase yet, this fellow will not hang about and might surprise a few
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Mick Hammond (95)
1:30 CHeltenham - EW Vulcanite @ 20/1 (Ante Post)
Vulcanite was rated over 100 when he was trained on the flat by Ralph Beckett, he then moved to Charlie Longsdon and was thrown in at the deep end on his hurdling debut.
He ran in aClass 2 hurdle @ Kempton on boxing day and ran well to finish 2nd behind the favourite, the first 2 were 20 lengths clear of third placed horse. On his next outing he was sent to Southwell for a class 4 novices hurdle, starting at well odds on he never ever looked like getting beaten and came home 7 lengths clear of the runner up, he quickened clear before the last in the style of a good horse.
The runner up has franked the form since by winning @ Newcastle, although the bare form doesn't look very good he won well and should improve again for the run and goes to Cheltenham with a chance of grabbing at least a place.
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Mick Hammond (95)
1:30 Cheltenham - Distant Memories EW @ 50/1
Distant Memories may well have been unbeaten coming to Cheltenham if he had not made a big mistake at the 2nd last when he was in a challenging position.
Midnight Game won that race thatday but i think Distant Memories would have won the race if not making that mistake and he is over 3 times the price of Midnight Game.
Distant Memories beat Page Turner on his racecourse debut, he hacked up next time out and although this is a graded race he does have a place chance if he jumps well.
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Mick Hammond (95)
3:15 Sandown - El Dancer EW @ 66/1
Although El Dancer has won over 3 miles before, he is a better horse over 2 miles and all of his recent hurdle runs have been over much further than the minimum trip.
His last win came @ Cheltenham lastApril over 3 miles off a handicap of 141, his previous win to that was at Aintree in 2009 over 2 miles in a class 1 hurdle race off a mark of 128.
He has dropped right down the weights from his Cheltenham win in 2010 off 141 to his rating today in this race of 123.
He will need to improve on his recent efforts to have a chance but he is running off his lightest official weight ever and back to 2 miles can see him spring a shock.
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Points Genie (1470)
A brave pick at 66/1. Don't need many of those to come in
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Mick Hammond (95)
Master Of Arts - 3.15 Sandown - 8/1 (Taken on Monday)
The Pipe's (David & Martin) between them have won 5 of the last 9 runnings of this race, they didn't have a runner last year so that figure looks even more impressive.
Looking at some trends for the race we see that the last 11 winners were all rated lower than 136, Master Of Oats is rated 135.
13 of the last 14 winners were aged between 4 and 7, Master Of Oats is aged 7, 8 of the last 9 winners were in the top 5 in the betting (Currently 2nd favourite) & all of the last 14 winners were returned at 16/1 or less.
9 of the last 11 winners had won 1 of their last 2 starts under NH rules, Master Of Oats has only raced twice and won first time out. There is a 50,000 bonus for any horse that wins this and wins at the festival and he is aimed for the County Hurdle on the Friday
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Mick Hammond (95)
2.05 Sandown - Same Difference - EW @ 20/1
Same Difference has only had 4 runs, he won on his debut, a distance slightly less than he runs in today, that race was at Lingfield in a novices hurdle, he tired in the closing stages and just held on.
On his next start he ran over 2m 3f @ Newbury, he finished 4th, just half a length behind Carrigmorna King who he meets today on 5lb better terms for half a length. His next run was a grade 2 novice hurdle over 2m 5f at Warwick, he finished 3rd that day but was well ahead of the 4th horse home,
Ambion Road was 2nd that day, 9 lengths in front of him but has to give 8lb to Same Difference here. His last run can be written off as he failed to stay the 3 miles, although he was going well 3 out before fading. He makes his handicap debut off 127, 3lb lower than his rating last time out, now back to a trip that he has won over he can run a big race.
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Points Genie (1470)
Unplaced at 10/1 :( But a good write up Mick which do get extra bonus points for winning picks
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Mick Hammond (95)
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Mick Hammond (95)
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Mick Hammond (95)
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Points Genie (1470)
Only Southampton lead at Half Time
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Mick Hammond (95)
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Mick Hammond (95)
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Mick Hammond (95)
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Mick Hammond (95)
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Mick Hammond (95)
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My Tipsters Moderator (1120)
Bolton v QPR should be 1-1 already but for a blind linesman. When will goal line technology come , we knew 10 seconds later it was a goal! Ridiculous
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My Tipsters Moderator (1120)
It is now 1-1 with a goal given that was offside. haha. I suppose they cancel out.
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Mick Hammond (95)
Cross the following 4 teams for trebles & an accy
Aston Villa, Ipswich, Hartlepool & Hereford, the accy alone pays over 100/1 with Bet365
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Andrew Powell (207)
I see you are more confident about my boys (Ipswich) than I am! Yes we are in decent form but have won just 1 from 14 at Hull! Good luck mate!
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Mick Hammond (95)
11/4 is a great price, they had chances against Southampton and Hull don't score many
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Mick Hammond (95)
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My Tipsters Moderator (1120)
Welcome to the site Mick and thanks for posting some football tips. Good luck!
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