winner of the Dante Stakes – he’s now around 20/1 for the Derby and with 3 of the last 9 Dante winners going onto Classic glory on the Downs then many will be snapping up that double-figure price.

market
7/10 – Favourites
7/10 – Having their first run of the season
7/10 – Won by a horse aged 4 years-old
6/10 – Unplaced in their last race
3/10 – Won by a mare
3/10 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
3/10 – Won by a Cheveley Park stud-owned horse (won it 5 times in all)
2/10 – Won by the Sir Michael Stoute yard (won the race 7 times in all)
2/10 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard
2/10 – Ridden by jockey Richard Hughes
2/10 – Ridden by jockey Kieren Fallon
0/10 – No winners from stall 1 or 2
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 3/1 #racing

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to, not to mention the new flat season as we move full steam ahead towards the first Classics of the year this weekend at Newmarket and the straight onto Chester’s May Meeting the following week.

two of the last three Scottish Grand Nationals, will be popular - especially after his fall last time out at Cheltenham when coming there with a strong-looking run.

I've taken an early look at Saturday’s big Ayr race, plus if you like your trends I've got all the key stats mapped out for you to take into the 4m contest.

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Alfie Sherrin, from the Jonjo O’Neill team who won this in 2007, is another to-the-fore in the betting.

17 of the last 22 winners have also been aged 9 or younger, but by far the best age bracket in that time has been the 7 and 8 year-olds – between them they’ve landed 13 of the last 22 renewals.

The other standout fact surrounding this race is that champion Irish NH trainer, and a yard I used to team up with - Willie Mullins - is yet to land the lucrative prize. It’s not as if hasn’t given it a go either. Since 2001 he’s sent 20 runners to post and with just one fourth-placed finish the best they’ve managed then this race is fast-becoming a bit of a bogey contest for them – let’s hope they can put that right this year.

It’s also a race the bookies have loved in recent years with not a single winning favourite landing the prize in the last 10 years, in fact 9 of the last 10 returned a double-figure price, while 6 of those 10 actually came from outside the first 8 in the betting – the average SP of the winner in the last 10 years is 22/1.

Being the Irish National it’s no real surprise that the home-based stables have won 70% of the last 10 races, while also double check the breeding of your fancy as 8 of the last 10 have also been bred in Ireland.

Finally, having a fairly recent run is another thing to look out for with 9 of the last 10 winner racing within the last 8 weeks, plus previous experience of racing here at Fairyhouse is another plus (7 of the last 10)

2 stone.

Since then we've seen 22 renewals and with 19 winners carrying less than 11 stone then this 3m5f contest has been dominated by those at the foot of the weights – in fact 13 of those 22 actually took the race with just 10-5 or less!

he pinnacle for the Staffordshire course’s annual calendar and sees the number of people in the small market town more than double for the day.
Midlands Grand National Trends

Recent Midlands Grand National Winners

2012 – MASTER OVERSEER (11/1)
2011 – MINELLA FOUR STAR (25/1)
2010 – SYCHRONISED (15/2)
2009 – RUSSIAN TRIGGER (8/1)
2008 – HIMALAYAN TRAIL (16/1)
2007 – BARON WINDRUSH (12/1)
2006 – G V A IRELAND (5/1 fav)
2005 – PHILSON RUN (14/1)
2004 – No race
2003 – INTELLIGENT (6/1)
2002 – THE BUNNY BOILER (5/1)

Midlands Grand National Trends

9/9 – Aged 9 or younger
9/9 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
8/9 – Had never run at Uttoxeter before
8/9 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
8/9 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
8/9 – Carried 10-9 or less
8/9 – Officially rated 133 or less
7/9 – Won by an Irish bred horse
7/9 – Unplaced favourites
6/9 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
6/9 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
5/9 – Returned a double-figure-price in the betting
5/9 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Trained by David Pipe
2/9 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
1/9 – Winning favourites

The last horse to win aged in double-figures was in 1995. The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 12/1

is also the current King George winner, was sent off as fourth favourite? – the horse in question is, of course, Long Run......

in recent times – 1993 (Olympian), 1998 (Blowing Wind) and 2007 (Gaspara) – and it’s significant that all three horses were trained by the Pipes. In fact, the Pond House team have won this race 8 times in all and will be pinning their hopes on Tanerko Emery, Home Run and Kazlian here.

You can expect Home Run to take them along and he was still in their fighting when coming down last time – I think he could run a big race, especially with four places up for grabs (it could also pay to shop about as with 26 runners heading to post there is a chance some firms will offer top 5 places).

It’s interesting that Tom Scudamore rides Kazlian and on his form of a year or so ago could go close here, while Tanerko Emery was a fine third in the Welsh Champion Hurdle last time out, but is up again in the ratings for that run.

The one to beat as far as the betting goes is Paul Nicholls’ Mr Mole – being owned by JP McManus he’ll have the services of a certain AP McCoy – and the fact the champ has won this race 5 times in all is another huge plus. This unexposed 5 year-old beat Home Run in effortless fashion last time at Taunton and you suspect there is more to come with that being just his fourth career run – he’s entered in the Country Hurdle next week, and with that race not until next Friday then he’ll have the maximum amount of time to recover should he take this and want to go for the bonus.

Of the rest, last year’s winner Paintball has not won since, but he’s only a pound higher here and if coming back to form is respected. Tominator, was a very decent stayer on the flat and won here at the track last time – as long as his jumping holds up he’s another for the short-list.

However, it’s hard to get away from the favourite MR MOLE – he’s taken to give AP McCoy yet another win in the race, while I’d also advise a saver on one of the Pipe runners – with Home Run looking the best value.

Recommended Bets
MR MOLE (win)
HOME RUN (e/w)

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I took this trial race back in 1990 onboard the Gordon Richards-trained Rinus and to his credit he followed-up that victory with an excellent third in the Aintree showpiece later that season – although Neil Doughty was doing the steering that day as I was on Bigsun (finished 6th) for the Duke.

So, although this weekend’s Haydock race is billed as a Grand National Trial it’s worth pointing out that the winners haven’t really upheld that title in recent years. I’ve gone back to 1980 and we’ve not seen a winner of this trial go onto land the Liverpool marathon in the same season.

That said, it’s certainly worth looking out for any horses that ran well in this race without winning. Why? Well a certain Neptune Collonges was a neck runner-up in this contest 12 months ago and we all know what he went onto do at Aintree, while the 2009 Grand National winner, Mon Mome, was seventh in this race before landing the world’s greatest steeplechase a few months later.

Others to quickly mention are the 1997 winner, Suny Bay, who went onto run second in the National a few months later, while the 2005 victor, Forest Gunner, later ran a decent fifth in the world’s greatest steeplechase.

Anyway, onto this year’s race and here are a few key trends to mull over.

Form: With 9 of the last 10 winners finishing in the top three last time out this is certainly a trend to have on your side, while if you want to take this further still 8 of the last 10 were actually placed 1st or 2nd in their latest race.

Age: 70% of the last 10 winners were aged 9 or younger, so it could pay to focus on the slightly younger legs.

Weight/Rating: 8 of the last 10 were officially rated 135 or higher, while in terms of weight 7 of the last 10 carried 11-0 or less. That said; don’t completely ignore those with welter burdens as 3 of the last 10 winners did in-fact carry 11-12 to victory.

Betting: We’ve only seen one winning favourite in the last 10 years, and that was Giles Cross 12 months ago. 7 of the last 10 returned a double-figure price, 80% of the last 10 winners came from outside the top 3 in the betting, while the average winning SP in that period is 10.5/1

Favourites: 5 of the last 10 runnings have seen the favourite finish unplaced, while, as already mentioned, we’ve had just 1 winning favourite in the last 10 renewals.

Last Race: Coming here off the back of a fairly recent run is another key thing to note as 8 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 7 weeks.

Have a great week!

their festival fancies, but we now know a lot more, like – past Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander does retain plenty of his old ability, while despite coming second Oscar Whisky does stay 3 miles and that Sprinter Sacre still looks invincible.

Here’s my take on last weekend’s action.....

Starting with the GOLD CUP – It was a crying shame that Imperial Commander couldn't hold on in the closing stages to land Saturday’s Argento Chase, but all the same he ran a cracker after being off the track for so long and it’s great to have one of the ‘old school’ back in the Gold Cup mix. Yes, he was getting a handy weight pull with the field, and off level weights in March then life will be harder for Nigel’s 12 year-old, but don’t forget this horse loves it at Cheltenham (won six times from 12 starts there), while the front two on Saturday did also pull a massive 36 lengths clear of the third, Hunt Ball.

I agree, that the likelier quicker ground come March will suit some of those in behind him on Saturday, but Imperial Commander won his Gold Cup on a good surface and seems to be at home in any conditions. We also all know it’s no secret this horse goes well fresh, so I guess the only slight doubt, along with the dreaded ‘bounce-factor’, is will the 6-7 weeks we've got till the Gold Cup be enough of a break? – he’s now around 25/1 in the betting.

The winner, Cape Tribulation, is now into around 33/1 for the Gold Cup and with this horse improving all the time then that price does look tempting. He’s also entered in the World Hurdle, but you suspect after Saturday’s win the Gold Cup is worth a crack at, plus after tasting Festival glory in the Pertemps Final Hurdle last season then he’s no stranger to the dealing with the demands of a big occasion.

That was only his 9th run over fences, so there should be more to come, and the way he stayed on up the hill in that heavy ground was impressive. Yes, he’s got plenty to find with the likes of Bobs Worth, Tidal Bay, Sir Des Champs and Long Run based on the ratings, but he’s going in the right direction and could easily hit the frame.

The other horse to enter the Gold Cup picture after Saturday’s meeting was the Venetia Williams-trained Katenko. The yard have made it clear they think a lot of this horse and they were right with an easy-looking 12 length win in the Murphy Group Chase. He’ll go up a fair bit for that win, but just like Hunt Ball last season could still be well-in. Of course though the Gold Cup is off level weights, and he’ll have so we’ll have to wait and see if they opt for that tougher option or they might prefer to take in one of the handicaps and keep this improving 7 year-old's for future years – he’s around 33/1 for the Gold Cup.

For me, however, as explained last week - the value still looks to be Long Run at around 7/1.

We didn't learn a great deal about the CHAMPION HURDLE, at Cheltenham, but Hurricane Fly did enhance his well-being with another effortless win in the Irish Champion Hurdle on Sunday. Okay, with only really Binocular in opposition there was not a lot for him to beat, but he did it in his usual dominate style and the bookmakers reacted by cutting him into around 3/1, and is now the clear favourite with most firms.

The 2011 champion is now 9 years-old, and those against him will cling to the fact his last defeat came at Cheltenham in the 2012 renewal, but he does seem right back to his best now and looks the one to beat – you also suspect that should there be no hiccups in the next few weeks the Irish will pile into their horse and, like last year, he could end up going off a lot nearer 7/4 than his current 3/1 price.

Thousand Stars ran second to him on Sunday, but he’s more likely to take in the WORLD HURDLE, while his main target for the season will surely be the Grade One Aintree Hurdle in April.

The only other tiny clue we got was with Oscar Whisky, as there is still an outside chance he could run in the Champion Hurdle. However, the Henderson team have plenty of other options in the race with the likes of Darlan, Binocular and Grandouet, while now that he’s confirmed his ability to stay 3m after a gallant second in Saturday’s Cleeve Hurdle then surely with no Big Buck’s the day three feature will be his main aim – he’s now around 5/1.

His conqueror on Saturday, Reve De Sivola, is generally the same price for the World Hurdle, but with the third favourite, Quevega, more likely to run in the mares’ race on the opening day then once we start to get a better picture of the final line-up you can expect the 5/1 of both Oscar Whisky and Reve De Sivola to shorten.

Bog Warrior was the other horse that could be World Hurdle bound to run last week as he won over at Gowran Park. He’s certainly a staying hurdler to look out for as that was his first try at 3m and at around 10/1 then he’s certainly an interesting alternative to the market leaders. What I would say though is that you might want to wait until the days leading up to the race before wading in as a lot will depend on the ground. Connections have made no secret of the fact he’s a much better horse with give underfoot, while although not a huge negative it’s worth pointing out it would be the first time he’s raced outside of Ireland – on a plus, however, his shrewd trainer, Tony Martin, is no stranger to landing a big festival race.

Finally, onto the CHAMPION CHASE, and is this 2m contest turning into a one-horse race? The simple answer according to the betting is, yes! Sprinter Sacre, who is now being billed as jump racings ‘Frankel’, added a seventh straight win over fences to his name when taking the Victor Chandler Chase by an effortless 14 lengths and is now as short as 2/7 in places for the QM Champion Chase.

I’ve said it before, but I’ve not seen a better jumper for some time, and Barry must be so excited about what this horse can achieve not only at this year’s festival, but in years to come too.

What I would say though is that he’ll certainly have his toughest test to date on the 13th March as he’s yet to tackle the likes of Sizing Europe, the 2011 champion, while if you forgive Finian’s Rainbow’s latest poor showing because of the heavy ground then he’s another that will certainly let him know he’s been in a race – after all he is the current champion!

Have a great week!

ot of cases they can help – after all, if a certain criteria of horse has won a race more times than not in the past then, surely, there’s got to be a strong chance of that being repeated in future renewals - hasn’t it?

Yes, and no, is the diplomatic answer, as the make-up of some races do change as time moves on. Take the Grand National for instance – it was almost unheard of getting a horse to lump over 11-0 to victory in the Aintree marathon, but the last four runnings have seen horses win with 11st (twice), 11-5, while last year’s winner, Neptune Collonges, brushed off his 11-6 burden to land the spoils.

All this suggests that the 4 1/2m race is now attracting a slightly better class horse, while some might argue that because the course has also become slightly easier then this has helped horses with bigger weights get home.

What’s great about our sport is that it’s all about opinions, but if you do like your trends, or just new to this approach then I will soon post up a taste of what to look out for ahead of this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup...

Starting with Bobs Worth, a horse I gave a positive mention to last week prior to his gutsy Hennessy win on Saturday. Nicky Henderson’s charge is now into 5/1 for the Gold Cup and clear favourite with the majority of firms. He’s taking exactly the same path as Denman did recently having already won the RSA Chase (2007), then going onto grab the Hennessy the following season before landing the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup – so can he follow suit?

The simple answer is, yes, of course he can. He’s maturing into a really tough horse to beat and with just 5 career chase runs then there is surely a lot more to come from this 7 year-old. Add in that he loves it round Prestbury Park, being unbeaten now in four runs there (3 over hurdles), then although the value might have been squeezed out of his price he’s still sure to have his supporters in the lead up to the race – he rates a solid option for me at this stage.

Denman also took in the Lexus and the Aon Chase (now Denman Chase) in his Gold Cup winning season, so we’ll have to see what path Henderson picks for Bobs Worth, but the fact he goes so well fresh and that he was beaten at Kempton last season in the Feltham suggests his races might be limited between now and March.

With Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander all no longer on the scene, then this really is an exciting time for one of the ‘new kids on the block’ to step up. Yes, 2011 Gold Cup winner, Long Run, is still only 7 years-old and you certainly can’t write-off a previous winner of the race – and at around 8/1 he rates a decent each-way alternative having also finished third in the 2012 renewal.

While of the others Paul Nicholls will be hoping his Silviniaco Conti, who got the better of Long Run in the Betfair Chase last month, can kick on again, but it’s worth pointing out he’s yet to tackle the tricky Cheltenham fences and was just third over hurdles here on his only previous outing at the track. I loved the way he jumped at Haydock last time and with Ruby sure to ride him he’ll have every assistance in the plate, but, for me, I’d much rather be siding with a proven course performer at this level.

That leaves Irish raiders Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs, who are both also rising up the chasing ranks at a rate of knots. The first-named is now 6-from-7 over fences and although some might question the calibre of horses he’s been beating he really could be anything and remains a hugely exciting prospect at just 7 years-old – he is, however, yet to race outside his native Ireland.

While, Sir Des Champs is unbeaten under rules – full stop! Yes, three hurdles wins, including the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Festival back in 2011, and five over fences, including last season’s Jewson Novices’ Chase, then he’s another that has proven Cheltenham course form – the pair could meet on Sunday at Punchestown in the John Durkan Memorial Chase and if they do we’ll know a lot more by this time next week.

The next ante-post market to get some action was the Ladbrokes-sponsored World Hurdle. The four-time winner of the race Big Buck’s, who is now 9 years-old, did his normal thing in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday and win as he liked, and although that win saw his price come in a tad, it was while back at home in his Ditcheat box the following day that saw a further cut in his price. The reason for that was the poor showing on Sunday at Fairyhouse of Voler La Vedette, the mare that ran him to 1 ¾ lengths in last season’s World Hurdle. Add in that Willie Mullins has openly said that he’ll be keeping his classy Quevega to the Mares’ only Hurdle at the Festival, then, once again, the opposition seems to be drying up - This time last week you could have got plenty of 5/4 on Paul Nicholls’ inmate winning again next March, but you’ll now be lucky to get anything better than 4/5.

The Fighting Fifth Hurdle up at Newcastle has been a fair Champion Hurdle guide in recent years and despite only 4 runners we had last season’s Supreme Novices’ and Triumph Hurdle winners doing battle in the shape of Cinders and Ashes and Countrywide Flame, with the last-named getting the better of the argument by 12 lengths. The McCain team said that on better ground they would be confident of a reversal of form, but Cinders and Ashes had won twice before on heavy ground and although I agree with them to a degree let’s not forget Countrywide Flame’s Triumph Hurdle win came on good ground last March too.

After the race we saw Flame’s Champion Hurdle odds come into 12/1 and Cinders’ out to 16/1. We should hopefully see Darlan, Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar in action at Cheltenham later this month so we’ll know more about that trio in the coming weeks too, but at this stage the 9/1 on offer about last year’s winner Rock On Ruby looks a fair price for a horse that is yet to finish out of the first two from 4 runs at Cheltenham.

Looking ahead to this week and I’ve already mentioned the John Durkan Memorial on Sunday over in Ireland as a race that could give us plenty more Gold Cup clues.

both look exciting prospects.

8/10 - Won by a 3 years-old
8/10 - Won over 1m4f previously
8/10 - Won from stall 6 or lower
8/10 - Won over 1m4f previously
8/10 - Won their last race
8/10 - Won at least 5 times previously
8/10 - Returned 10/1 or shorter
7/10 - Had raced at Longchamp before
6/10 - Had won at Longchamp before
5/10 - Won by a French-based yard
5/10 - Favourites placed
4/10 - Raced at Longchamp last time out
3/10 - Favourites to win
2/10 - Female winners
2/10 - Trained by Andre Fabre
2/10 - Ridden by Kieren Fallon
2/10 - Won by a UK-based yard
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
Trainer Andre Fabre has won the race 7 times.

g no permanent damage has been done, she can gain a belated third win.

ookmakers can only see one result.

The unbeaten 3 year-old will try and add the Leger to his 2,000 Guineas, Epsom & Irish Derby wins this season, while let’s not forget he’s also won here on Town Moor, when taking last season’s Racing Post Trophy in emphatic fashion.

Those against him might cling to the fact he’s trying this 1m6f trip for the first time, but the manor of his victories over 1m4f suggests to me there is not a lot of weight in that argument. He’s likely to be even better now upped in trip, while he’s been destroying his stable mate, and leading Ballydoyle Cup horse – Fame and Glory, at home in recent gallops.

That said, there are plenty of leading yards that will be trying to upset the hotpot, with the in-form William Haggas confirming his Guarantee as a runner last week, while like most years trainer John Gosden is also well represented.

Whichever horse Gosden’s number one jockey, William Buick, decides to ride is another that’s sure to come in a point or two, so you might want to wait until this is 100% confirmed later in the week with Great Voltigeur winner, Thought Worthy, Michelangelo and Shantaram other possible Gosden runners at this stage.

The Great Voltigeur, run at last month’s York Ebor Meeting, has always been a good guide with 13 Leger winners using that contest as a stepping stone before taking this, while in the last 10 years there have been 5 Leger winners that just ran in that York event.

The others to make up the field will probably consist of at least one Ballydoyle pacemaker to help Camelot, but being rated 8lbs superior to his nearest rival (Main Sequence) then it seems hardly worth it.

Of the rest that have a tiny squeak of upsetting the applecart are Main Sequence and Sir Henry Cecil’s Thomas Chippendale – who were both in behind Thought Worthy in the Voltigeur last time.

Both should improve for the step up in trip, while any rain will be a plus for Thomas Chippendale, and in a normal year they’d both be leading players in the betting. However, when you compare their past efforts to that of Camelot’s it makes me even more confident there really is only going to be one winner this Saturday and a new name for the record books.

Key St Leger 10 Year Trends

10/10 - Placed last time out
10/10 - Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
9/10 - Had never raced at Doncaster before
9/10 - Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
8/10 - Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 - Had won a Group race before
8/10 - Placed favourites
8/10 - Winning distance of 1 length or more
7/10 - Had won over at least 1m3f before
6/10 - Won last time out
5/10 - Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (2 won it)
4/10 - Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/10 - Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
3/10 - Won by John Gosden
3/10 - Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/10 - Ridden by William Buick
0/10 - No winner drawn in stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

Aussie-based speedball has been over here since Royal Ascot and although she disappointed there she’s certainly made amends since by landing the King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, and more recently the Group One Nunthorpe at York.

The last horse to take that York sprint and then go onto win this Saturday’s Haydock contest was Reverence back in 2006, while the way she finished last time out you suspect there could be even more to come back over this extra furlong.

Those against her will probably cling to the ground, especially if it gets any softer at the Lancashire venue this week, but she’s got winning form Down Under with give underfoot, but I guess some will still question if an Australian ‘soft’ is the same as an English ‘soft’!

There could be an extra story surrounding Ortensia as her regular UK pilot, William Buick, will also be hoping to ride Coral-Eclipse winner, Nathaniel, over in Ireland on the same day, but with the Haydock race due off at 3.25 and the Irish contest set to start at 5.45 he’ll need to have the helicopter already started if he’s going to make it.

Bated Breath is generally second favourite in the ante-post betting at this stage, but he’s got 3 ¼ lengths to find with Ortensia based on their recent York runs, but a positive for this horse is surely the track. Roger Chartlon’s 5 year-old has won 3 times and finished runner-up once from his 4 visits to Haydock and although soft ground (or worse) would be a worry I think based on those track stats alone he’s got to be one for the shortlist.

Aidan O’Brien’s Excelebration is not a certain runner, but is still entered in the race at this stage and after seeing the back of Frankel twice this season he got his head in front last time over in France. He’s certainly got the class to win this, being a two-time Group One winner, but the big unknown is the drop back to 6f. Yes, he’s won over this distance, but that was back in his 2 year-old days. If he can still live with this speedsters in the early stages then his proven stamina will be a big asset, while let’s not forget he’s finished in the top three in all of his last 12 starts.

Richard Hannon’s Strong Suit comes into the race as one of the highest rated, and a recent second at Newbury in the Hungerford Stakes shows he’s still got the ability. That said, he’s not the most consistent of horses these days, while all his best recent runs have been over 7f and really soft ground would also be a big concern having finished 14 lengths behind Mayson in the July Cup in heavy conditions.

So that brings me onto Mayson. If he runs he could just be the value call and also be slightly overlooked by punters because we’ve not seen him on the track for 6 weeks and that he didn’t run in the Nunthorpe.

However, he dotted up by a staggering 5 lengths in the July Cup back on heavy ground and if in that sort of form again then surely he’s the one to beat, especially if the ground comes up soft. The runner-up that day (The Cheka) has since run well at Goodwood, while he had a whole host of these, including Ortensia, well behind in the July Cup.

Betfred Sprint Cup Betting Trends

9/10 – Winners from stall 6 or higher
9/10 – Had 4 or more career wins
8/10 – Winning distance - 1 length or less
8/10 – Officially rated 111 or higher
8/10 – 4 or more runs that season
8/10 - Aged 5 or younger
8/10 – Failed to win their last race
8/10 – Won over 6f before
7/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/10 – Won a Group race previously
6/10 – Won at a double-figure price
6/10 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
6/10 – Ran at Deauville (3) or York (3) last time out
4/10 – Run at Haydock before (2 had won)
3/10 – Favourites to win

after the excellent four day York Ebor Meeting last week I thought it would be a perfect time to take a quick look ahead to the final Classic of the season - the Ladbrokes St Leger - run in just two weeks time.

Last week's Great Voltigeur Stakes at York is always a decent guide with 13 Leger winners landing that race before going onto glory at Doncaster, while in the last 10 years 5 horses had just contested that York race before taking the Leger.

With that in mind it's worth keeping last week's Voltigeur winner, Thought Worthy, on your side should he run in a few weeks, while Main Sequence, Noble Mission, Thomas Chippendale, Encke and Energizer are the others that contested that York trial last Wednesday.

John Gosden's Thought Worthy is now around 14/1 in the betting, but the trainer that's won the final Classic of the season for the past two years does have other leading players in Michelangelo, Shantaram and Great Heavens entered at this stage too.

It goes without saying that if they all take their chance then a lot will depend of what horse their number one jockey William Buick picks and with them all open to more improvement then that will be no easy task.

The way Thought Worthy ground it out from the front at York last week suggests he could be even better over another two furlongs, but he didn't have much to spare at the line with Main Sequence and I'd be surprised if William went for him.

Shantaram was hugely impressive when winning the Group Three Bahrain Trophy at HQ last time, and is another that looks on the up - especially now being upped to 1m6f. However, he was beaten by Main Sequence in the Lingfield Derby Trial back in May and will, therefore, need to confirm he has improved since.

Michelangelo was disappointing last time at Goodwood behind Noble Mission in what's been another good trial race for the Leger - the Gordon Stakes. So, it's hard to see him reversing that form, but his backers will cling to the fact the horse he beat the time before (Cameron Highland) dotted up in a decent race at Windsor on Saturday night to give that form a big boost.

The final Gosden horse worth a mention is Great Heavens, who was last seen winning the Irish Oaks by an impressive 3 lengths. She had Epsom Oaks runner-up, Shirocco Star, and Royal Ascot winner, Princess Highway, both in behind that day and based on that effort this would be the most likely ride for William Buick in my eyes. Yes, a lot will depend on the ground come the day as the softer the better for this filly and should the rains continue over the next fortnight then I suspect her current price of around 8/1 (14/1 in places) will vanish as the each-way thieves come out of the woodwork.

Of course, with all this talk about the strong Gosden hand I've not even mentioned the short-priced favourite and this year's Derby winner - Camelot. It goes without saying he's clearly the one to beat as he looks to become the first horse since Nijinsky to land the Triple Crown and based on a recent bit of work with stable mate Fame and Glory then he's going to be hard to beat.

He's since added the Irish Derby to his haul of Group One wins this season and with that win coming on an easy surface then he's also shown that if the ground does come up soft then even that might not stop him cementing his name in the history books.

In summary, it looks as if John Gosden has more than got Camelot surrounded with a whole host of horses that in any normal year would land this prestigious Classic, but just like Frankel we could having another superstar on our hands in Camelot and I suspect he'll just have too much toe for this lot and provide O'Brien his third win in the race.

Key St Leger 10 Year Trends

10/10 - Placed last time out

10/10 - Had 2 or 3 previous career wins

9/10 - Had never raced at Doncaster before

9/10 - Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season

8/10 - Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting

8/10 - Had won a Group race before

8/10 - Placed favourites

8/10 - Winning distance of 1 length or more

7/10 - Had won over at least 1m3f before

6/10 - Won last time out

5/10 - Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (2 won it)

4/10 - Winning favourites (1 joint)

3/10 - Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)

3/10 - Won by John Gosden

3/10 - Ridden by Frankie Dettori

2/10 - Ridden by William Buick

0/10 - No winner drawn in stall 1

The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

Regards,
Richard

or 5 years-old
7/10 – Winners that carried 9-0 or less
6/10 – Favourites unplaced
5/10 – Run at York previously
4/10 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/10 – Won their last race
2/10 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/10 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/10 – Ran at Galway last time out
1/10 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011)
1/10 – Winning favourites

Luca Cumani has won the race in 1999, 2004 & 2007
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996

Verdict: The money has been non-stop all week for the Sir Mark Prescott-trained Motivado, who we last saw winning in facile fashion at Goodwood earlier this month. He dotted up by 5 lengths that day and if in that form again should go close. However, unless you are already on at much bigger odds the value has all but been squeezed out of his price now, while it’s worth noting this race has been a bit of a graveyard for favourites in recent years - just win winning jolly since 1999.
Add in that 7 of the last 10 winners returned a double-figure price, including a 100/1 success back in 2006, then this 1m6f contest is no stranger to throwing up the odd shock.

So, although he’s not going to be much bigger than 10/1 the forgotten horse in the race could be the Luca Cumani-trained QAHRIMAN (e/w). The yard has targeted this valuable handicap with success three times in recent years, most recently in 2007, and having won over course and distance last time is another positive. Yes, he’s up another 6lbs here, but has only had 7 career runs so there should be plenty more improvement for the Cumani team to eke out of him, so under Kieren Fallon, who rode a winner for this yard at York on Wednesday, he can go close.

has got is certainly not in question as last week’s Wednesday crowd was up from 2011, and, of course, he’s also been great at raising the profile of our sport, but despite his superstar status I suspect that if we keep seeing him go off at 1/20 then the bookies might have something to say.

Last year when we saw Frankel in that ‘Duel On The Downs’ with Canford Cliffs the racing world were a lot more divided and the Tote saw around 80k bet on that race, but this year they could only attract 18k in revenue due to his ultra-short price.

Yes, I’m sure overall the bookies won’t moan as the extra crowds he draws into the tracks will mean more is wagered on the supporting races but it’s just something to think about and that’s why I can’t wait to see him tried over further.

Over a mile he’s been there and done it now and some might have even argued that after his 2,000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes romps of 2011 then that was enough to prove his status as the best miler around.

However, if there were still some doubters out there, the Cecil camp have taken in the Lockinge, Queen Anne and Sussex, all of which have been over a mile, this season - just to make sure!

By beating Godolphin’s Farhh last week that gave us a few more lines of form to assess the great horse against as it was only last month when we saw that horse running a close second to Nathaniel in the Eclipse.

Having also finished third to So You Think over 1m2f in the Prince Of Wales’s back in June I think it’s safe to say Farhh is better over further, while, without taking anything away from Frankel, I also don’t think we saw the best of the Godolphin horse last Wednesday.

So, what’s next for Frankel? The Juddmonte International at York in a few weeks and at last a chance to see the world’s highest-rated horse over 1m2f – I can’t wait!

Yes, he’s going to be odds on again, but the very fact he’s running over a whole new trip will hopefully have some people divided over his chance.

Being by Galileo then connections should have little to worry about the distance and the way he’s been winning his races of late suggests he’ll get the extra yardage in his sleep – but, you never know!

It goes without saying that should (or even when) he wins the Juddmonte then this will further increase his stud value (not that it needs increasing), but even if there is a shock result and he does taste defeat for the first time his stock is hardly going to come down much, is it?

After the Juddmonte there has been talk of taking in the Prix du Moulin over in France, and a potential clash with last weekend’s Maurice de Gheest winner, Moonlight Cloud, as this will bridge a gap between York and Champions Day at Ascot in October.

With this being Frankel’s last season I certainly applaud connections for getting him out as much as possible, and I’m sure the French prize money is not to be sniffed at – but, for me, I’d bypass the trip across the Channel in preference for preparing him for a swansong at the Breeders’ Cup.

Yes, I can see why the Breeders’ Cup has already all but been ruled out as it will give the British public the chance to see him in his final race at Ascot, and the long journey across the Atlantic has its own worries, but just imagine if he was to go out with a win over at Santa Anita in November - surely that way he’d be classed the ‘best race horse of all time’!

My final word this week surrounds Hereford racecourse. Although it doesn’t look good in terms of the 2013 fixtures as these have seemingly already been distributed around the other Arena Leisure tracks, but I really hope they can sort things out and get racing back on at the county’s only racing venue – ditto at Folkestone too.

Although I didn’t ride him at Hereford I know West Tip, my 1986 Grand National winner, won there as a Hunter Chaser and although it’s obviously classed as one of the lesser tracks these courses do play their part in bringing through the next generation of horses and I wish them luck in their battle to get racing back on.

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One is widely regarded as Britain’s most prestigious open-age flat race and with last year’s winner and recent Eclipse Stakes victor, Nathanial, in the line-up there’s plenty to look forward too.

Swain, back in 1997 and 1998, was the last horse to land back-to-back King George’s, and actually since 1950 there’s only been one other horse (Dahlia) that’s managed to defend his crown, meaning should John Gosden’s 4 year-old manage this on Saturday he’ll have etched his name in the record books.

Despite that trend looking slightly against him he does have plenty going for him, including the fact that all of the past 10 winners were aged either 3 or 4 years-old – a stat that might put some off one of the other main fancies St Nicholas Abbey (5 years-old).

Aidan O’Brien’s Coronation Cup winner was actually third; around 4 lengths behind Nathanial, in the contest 12 months ago and with the runner-up that day, Red Cadeaux, flopping at HQ last week then some might also question the form of that Epsom run.

Sea Moon, who was last seen winning the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot in impressive fashion, is another who will be popular in the betting should he take his chance. The Sir Michael Stoute-trained 4 year-old looks a horse very much on the upgrade and with the sixth that day, Fiorente, giving the form a big boost by winning the Princess Of Wale’s Stakes last week then everything points to another big run – the yard also have a fantastic record, having won it five times in the past.

Arc winner, Danedream, could head over from Germany and if in the mood that saw her land the Longchamp prize last October then she’s, of course, respected, but this will be her first visit to the Berkshire track and also needs to bounce back from a poor recent run at Saint Cloud (last of 4).

The final one worth a mention is Dunaden, who was a fast-finishing second to Sea Moon in the Hardwicke last time out. He didn’t have the best of runs in the straight that day and although it’s debatable if he’d have caught the winner, one thing’s for sure he’d have certainly got a lot closer than the 3 ¼ lengths that separated them at the line.

Having won the Melbourne Cup over further then we might see connections running him a bit closer to the pace this time and having only finished out of the first three once in his last 15 starts then you can expect him to be very popular with the each-way thieves.

For those of you that like your trends, here are a few to look out for ahead of Saturday’s race.......

King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes Trends

10/10 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 before
10/10 – Aged either 3 or 4 years-old
9/10 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Had 2 or more runs that season
9/10 – Placed in their last race
8/10 – Had won over 1m4f previously
7/10 – Had won a Group 1 before
7/10 – Run Ascot before
6/10 – Winning favourites
6/10 – Won their last race
5/10 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
5/10 – Had won at Ascot before
3/10 – Ridden by Johnny Murtagh
3/10 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute

The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1 Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1981, 1983, 2002, 2009 & 2010 Saeed Bin Suroor won the race in 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999 & 2004.

well at home & better can be expected.

therefore, you’d expect them to be sending out winners, but like Henderson and Nicholls over jumps it can sometimes be harder to maintain a high strike-rate when you are running so many horses. That said, the Hannon team are currently firing in the winners at around the 17% mark and the fact they are also showing a +17 level stakes profit with their runners this season is another plus. Of their 62 winners this campaign a monster 23 have been with their juveniles and 33 with their 3 year-olds, suggesting with just 4 winners in the 4+ year-old bracket then if there is one tiny negative it’s this. We can expect their normal deluge of runners heading to Royal Ascot next week, but I have been especially taken with their 2 year-old Sir Pracealot. He dotted up at Sandown last time in what looked a fair race despite finding a bit of trouble in-running and that to me is the sign of a good horse, while I know the yard think he could be very useful indeed. If, however, there is one Ascot negative to take into next week it could be with their 3 year-olds as they are just 2 from 89 in that age group in recent years at the Berkshire track.

JOHN GOSDEN: Notched a 14/1 double up at Doncaster on Saturday which meant he’s now sent out 10 winners this month already. They need just one more success to make it 50 up for the season, and if they continue in this form then they look certain to smash their 2011 tally of 99, while their best-ever total of 113 (1992) could be in trouble too. They are operating around the 21% mark so far this season, but it’s also interesting that a huge 68% of their 230+ runners have managed to finished fourth or better. It’s no surprise that stable jockey William Buick has been on 9 of their 10 June winners, with Tadhg O’Shea riding their other, while in terms of their 2 year-olds they’ve only sent 4 to post so far, with one winner. Plenty of entries in the horizon but pay special attention to any older horses they might send to Yarmouth this week – they are currently 5 from 11 at the track in that age group.

SIR HENRY CECIL: Four winners already in June from just a handful of runners puts them on 19 for the season. Thomas Chippendale was a nice winner for them over the weekend and he looks one to follow in the coming months (entered in the King Edward VII Stakes), and with the yard clearly in good heart then all bodes well for the mighty Frankel next week in the Queen Anne Stakes - a race he’s currently around 1/4 in the betting for. No juvenile runners at all for the stable as yet, but should anything pop up at Ascot next week in that sphere take note as they are 3 from just 5 in recent years with their juveniles at the course.

MICHAEL DODS: With a monster 125/1 treble up at Newcastle on Saturday then anything the Dods team send to post at present should be noted. They added another 9/2 winner at Pontefract on Monday and that puts them on 17 now for the season as they try and chase down last terms tally of 39 - their best-ever haul was 49 (2008 & 2009). The bulk of their wins so far this campaign have been with their 3 year-olds (9), but pay special attention to their juveniles too – they are 3 from just 7 sent to post with their 2 year-olds. Being based in Co Durham then most of their runners will be found at the northern tracks, but they do have Barney McGrew entered at Yarmouth on Wednesday and they are currently 1 from 2 with their recent runners at the seaside venue.

DAVID BARRON: Another yard that were amongst the winners up at Newcastle over the weekend, but with 7 winners in June prior to that then the signs have been good for a few weeks now. Keep a special lookout for when young apprentice Luke McNiff gets the call to ride – he’s won on his last three rides for the yard. With 22 winners now for the season they are well on their way to bettering the 57 they notched last term, but you feel they will be hard-pressed to better their best-ever total of 76 (2006). They’ve also shown a level-stakes profit in 4 of their last 6 seasons and being currently on +21 this year then that trend looks like continuing.

ROBERT COWELL: Yes, not one of the biggest yards in operation but with three winners from his last 6 runners then it’s there for all to see how his horses are running at the moment. Stable star Prohibit will be hoping to land back-to-back King’s Stands Stakes at Royal Ascot next week and at around 16/1 in the betting he’s sure to attract plenty of each-way punters. They are now on 14 successes for the season and now need just 7 to equal their best-ever total (2010). As the season progresses we can expect to find a large chunk of their runners at the Lingfield and Wolverhampton AW tracks, but keep a close eye on anything they send to Bath – they are 2 from just 3 at the course in recent years.

PAUL MIDGLEY: With 5 of their last 10 runners going in then there are not many yards in better form at present. Based in North Yorkshire it goes without saying you’ll find most of their runners on the northern circuit, while jockey Micky Fenton has a strong association with the yard. Since they started out back in 2003 they’ve been steadily improving each season with 51 in 2011 their best yet. They already eaten just under a third of the way into bettering that total with 15 successes, but it could pay to know 14 of those have been with their older horses. They are a stable that do well with turning around other stable’s castoffs, but, like I said, with just 1 winner from over 40 two and three year-olds so far this season it might be better to avoid this age group until they show a few better signs.

Trainer stats correct from 12th June 2012

ask yourself – when was the last time we had so much to look forward to as we head towards Royal Ascot in a few weeks and then the second half of the flat season?

Yes, Sea the Stars gave us a taster three years ago, but this year’s unbeaten Derby winner has been given the same rating of 124 after his weekend’s performance and is now around 4/1 to add the St Leger and Arc to his haul this season.

Some might question the quality of the field on Saturday as it did lack a bit of depth and was, after all, the smallest line-up we’ve had in the Classic for over 100 years. However, his time was just shy of 3 seconds faster than Sea The Star’s 2009 Derby win and with the Leger in mind he wasn’t exactly stopping up the hill.

He’s around 1/3 to add the final British Classic to his 2,000 Guineas and Derby victories and become the first horse since Nijinsky (1970) to land the Triple Crown. True, with the Arc only three weeks after the Doncaster race there might be some that feel he should just focus on the French race, however, I suspect the pressure from the racing fraternity will eventually be enough to convince the Ballydoyle team to really cement Camelot’s name into the history books and go for the September Classic.

I must also give credit to young Joseph O’Brien, who didn’t have much experience of riding around the tricky Epsom track and with such a responsibility of riding the short-priced Derby favourite for an owner who has hit the crossbar so many times the pressure would have been huge.

Okay, so many punters will say they could have probably won on him, but you’ve still got to do it and a lot can still go wrong – especially around a course like Epsom - while if he did mess up it’s not as if he can come back next year with the same horse and make amends!

St Nicholas Abbey’s win before the Derby in the Coronation Cup would have helped him bundles, being over the same trip, with O’Brien going onto ride almost identical races. He’s around 6/1 in the Arc market in what would be a very interesting clash, with Abbey’s Saturday win only around a second slower than Camelot’s time.

Many are also contemplating a clash with the mighty Frankel at some stage, but that would mean Camelot dropping back to at least 1m2f. It is a race I and every other follower of flat racing would relish but I'm inclined to think connections will keep him over further for the time being.

Roll on Royal Ascot........

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me as we sent Dessie over there to land the prize at the age of 11 back in 1990, but since then he’s been one of only two winners that have managed to lump 12-0 to victory, the other being Flashing Steel in 1995.

In fact if you like your trends then the Ladbrokes Irish Grand National does seem to throw up some key stats year after year and hopefully if history repeats itself next Monday then we can at least whittle the big field down a bit.

I’ve already mentioned the weight, and we know that a bit like most Nationals it takes a very good horse to be able to carry 11-0+ to victory and the same applies here. All of the last 11 winners carried less than 11 stone, while 9 of those 11 actually won with only 10-5 or less on their back.

Again, we know that Desert Orchid won the race at 11 years-old, but generally you want a horse a bit younger than that. Since my win in 1990 (21 races) we’ve seen only four others win aged 10 or older, with 13 of those 21 renewals actually going to a horse aged either 7 or 8 years-old.

Next up is to look out for horses that have proven form at Fairyhouse as the tricky fences, undulations and stiff nature of the course mean a lot of horses simple won’t enjoy it round here. Yes, last year’s winner, Organisedconfusion, hadn’t previously won a race at the track, but Arthur Moore’s winner had run three times before at the course, while in 2010 the first eight horses home all had winning or placed form at Fairyhouse. Finally on the track, if your fancy has experience at Cheltenham this can also be an added bonus. Okay, so one if left-handed and one is right-handed but take that away then they are actually very similar – and with recent UK winners, Butler’s Cabin and Niche Market, having had plenty of Prestbury Park experience prior to their victories this further backs this up.

Looking at the trainers next and there isn’t really a dominate yard to have on your side. The last 15 runnings have seen a different stable take the prize each year, but if you want something to cling to then last year’s winning handler, Arthur Moore, did take the contest in 1996 too. I suppose the main thing to note is the record of Willie Mullins. A bit like Paul Nicholls in the English version this is a race that’s eluded the Irish champion trainer, and since 2001 he’s sent 16 to post and the best he’s managed is one fourth-placed finish!

Having a horse that’s been on the track within the last two months has also been a strong trend in recent years - 10 of the last 11 winners, including last year’s victor, all ran within 60 days of lining-up here – something that is against Groody Hill, one of the likely favourites, who has a 104-day absence to overcome.

The UK-trained runners have won 3 of the last 8, so anything they send over should be respected, and it goes without saying having a horse with proven winning form over 3m+ is a ‘must-have’ - 9 of the last 11 fit into that category.

The final thing to note is the record of the favourite. The Nina Carberry-ridden winner 12 months ago returned at 12/1, and since 2001 we’ve actually only seen one winner priced at single-figure odds and no winning favourite over that period either.

At time of writing the final card is not out, but based on the stats should Rivage D’Or, On The Fringe, Our Victoria or Smoking Aces make the line-up these are all horses that have plenty of positive trends on their side.

Irish Grand National Trends Summary

11/11 – Carried 11-0 or less
10/11 – Aged 9 or younger
10/11 – Ran within the last 2 months
9/11 – Carried 10-5 or less
9/11 – Had won over at least 3m before
7/11 – Won by either a 7 or 8 year-old
3/11 – Won by a UK-based trainer
0/11 – Won by a Willie Mullins-trained horse
0/11 – Won by the favourite

All the best from Richard and team

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