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Sep 29 2014 @ 11:40
Mathematician posted an update in the group Horse Racing 9 years, 6 months ago · updated 9 years, 6 months ago
Bath 5.20
1/2 High Secret, 6/1 Tunnel Tiger, 8/1 Reach The Beach, 10/1 Noor Al Haya, 20/1 Lucky Diva, 20/1 Vertueux, 25/1 River Du Nord 25/1 Vexillum, 33/1 Illegale.
This is a 1m 5f handicap , I like TUNNEL TIGER each way.
Hard to know how far to take this race as the odds on favourite HIGH SECRET sets us a difficult dilemma. He has raced once this year and won. He is a Mark Prescott lightly raced improver. I looked at Class 6 handicaps over 12f-13f-14f in Autumn and that is not a safe profile. I can not bet him.
I can’t make HIGH SECRET a negative as there was a Mark Prescott winner in 2007 called Spanish Conquest who did win a similar race with a similar profile. It wasn’t an exact profile as it was on sand and he didn’t win last time out. HIGH SECRET is unsafe. He escapes being called negative but one race this year just 6 days ago has risks attached and his price is too short.
Not going with REACH THE BEACH not for statistical reasons. More the fact she has not shown she handles fast ground and her sire has never had a firm ground winner before and that worries me a bit.
TUNNEL TIGER 11/2 came out really well as an experienced 3yo filly and She may be the more sensible bet in this race and She is a bigger price to get placed than we would get for the favourite to win this.
Selection
TUNNEL TIGER 11/2 Each Way
A decent source of mine is going for Noor Al Haya each way to fairly small stakes in this race.
Tough to over look the fact Prescott’s stable is in flying form and what High Secret done 1st time out was repeated by Jolie Blonde in the 5.50 coming back after a long lay off.
Welcome back Tom
thanks for the welcome lad 😉