Members

Morning – it’s been a fairly quiet week on the racing front and it was a shame we lost Ffos Las, and their Welsh Champion Hurdle card, again last Saturday. For what is their flagship meeting it’s disappointing that it’s gone astray to the weather so many times in recent years – I know the race planners can’t control the weather, but maybe they should look into moving the race (still at Ffos Las), but at a slightly different time of the year – just a thought!

Anyway, it was a decent weekend for us with Le Reve (4/1) doing the business, and landing that Sandown race for a second year on the spin for the Lucy Wadham camp, while Richard Johnson was at his very best when getting home Saddlers Encore (5/1) for us too. The horse was on offer a lot nearer 7/1 in the morning, so were on at bigger prices and this improving hurdler seemed to relish conditions. That was only his fifth start over hurdles (winning 3) so he’s certainly one I’ll be looking out for again next time.

As we move onto this weekend Newbury host one of their biggest jumping cards outside their Hennessy meeting and we get a chance to take-in a few more Cheltenham Festival clues with the Game Spirit Chase, Denman Chase and Betfair Hurdles all likely to throw-up a few more puzzles for us to unravel when it comes to the big Prestbury Park fixture next month.

I’ll be taking a look at these three races below, plus giving you my best bets from the other LIVE C4 races at Warwick.

Have a good weekend!

Denman Chase – Nicholls Eyes 9th Winy
Newbury: 2.25 – Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m7f86y CH4

10/12 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
10/12 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/12 – Rated 150+
10/12 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Placed favourites
9/12 – Aged 8 or younger
9/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/12 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (3 winners)
8/12 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
7/12 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
6/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/12 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
5/12 – Winning favourites
5/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – French bred
4/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Returned a double-figure price
3/12 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/12 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman & Kauto Star)
2/12 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/12 – Won by the Pipe stable
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/2

Note: 2009 running was staged at Kempton

RICHARD’S VERDICT: The Paul Nicholls camp have won this race a staggering eight times and with the contest being named in honour of their former superstar – Denman – then it goes without saying they will be wanting to win it again this year. Some huge names in the staying chasing arena have taken this prize in recent years – See More Business, Kauto Star, Silviniaco Conti, Long Run, Denman and, of course, Coneygree, who we all know went onto Gold Cup glory the following month. In-fact we’ve seen three horses in the last 9 runners take this en-route to the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

However, this year’s race doesn’t have the calibre of those past winners and looks a fairly weak renewal in comparison. That said, we do have last year’s runner-up Houblon Des Obeaux in attendance, but since that run 12 months ago this Venetia Williams-trained 9 year-old has run some shockers and is now rated 16lbs lower. The horse is certainly capable of going well, but his last chase win was now back in Dec 2013 so despite running well in some top staying races has been hard to win with.

The Pipe team won this in 2009 with Madison Du Berlais and they will be hoping to follow-up with BALLYNAGOUR. This 10 year-old was last seen pulling-up in the King George on Boxing Day, but will find this company a lot easier. He’s also the highest-rated in the field, but actually gets weight from some of the others – like Rocky Creek – so if bouncing back to form and running to the level that saw him finish 4 lengths third to Cue Card back in October then he should be hard to beat.

Rocky Creek will the horse Nicholls will be pinning his hopes on as he bids to win the race for a ninth time. This 10 year-old was pulled up last time at Aintree in the Grand Sefton, but before that was an 8 length second to Don Cossack in Ireland. So the top three in the betting have something to prove, but with Rocky Creek having to give 6lbs to Ballynagour and Venetia’s horse badly out-of-form at present then that might just swing things in favour of the Pipe-trained horse.

Game Spirit – Bullets To Fire On His Return
Newbury 3.00 – Betfair Exchange Chase (Registered as The Game Spirit Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y CH4

11/11 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Placed favourites
10/11 – Aged 8 or younger
10/11 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (2 winners)
8/11 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
8/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
9/11 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
6/11 – French bred
6/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/11 – Won last time out
5/11 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (3 winners)
5/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/11 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/11 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/11 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
1/11 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase

The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9/4

RICHARD’S VERDICT: Another contest I’ve fond memories of, having won the prize three times during my riding days – Very Promising, Waterloo Boy (2), and a race that’s been a fair guide ahead of the Queen Mother Champion Chase in recent times – and this year is no different.

As we finally get the chance to see last year’s Champion Chaser, DODGING BULLETS, in action. It’s another of these Saturday Newbury races that trainer Paul Nicholls has done well in – winning it seven times in the past and really he should be making it eight with Dodging Bullets.

His 8 year-old has had a few issues this term – hence why we are only seeing him now, but despite having to give weight away to all the others here he’s the clear top-rated and if back on-song, as reported he is, then should take all the beating here.

He’s currently around 8/1 for the Champion Chase and despite most people thinking Un De Sceaux is a banker for that race I don’t think you can ignore the current champ, even though he has been off the track for 339 days. He was second in the race in 2014, so we know he handles the track and soft ground is not a problem either. No matter what happens here he’s sure to come on for the outing, but this should bring him spot-on for the Festival and at 8/1 – a price that may well vanish after this race – he looks a fair e/w option against the Mullins hot-pot next month.

 

Betfair Hurdle – Home In On Hobbs

Newbury: 3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m69y CH4

13/13 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight
12/13 – Aged 7 or younger
12/13 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
11/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
11/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/13 – Rated 130 or higher
11/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
11/13 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
10/13 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
10/13 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
7/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/13 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
5/13 – Aged 5 years-old (including 5 of last 8)
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/13 – Trained by Gary Moore
2/13 – Raced at Leopardstown last time out
1/13 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)

18 of the last 19 winners have been aged 7 or younger

The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 14.4/1

RICHARD’S VERDICT: A race I won just the once during my riding days – with the John Jenkins-trained Grey Salute back in 1989, while, although it’s unlikely this season, we have seen horses win this race and then go onto Champion Hurdle glory the following month (Persain War and Make A Stand). We are more likely to see horses that ran well in this race go for the County Hurdle – a race the 2003 winner, Spirit Leader, went onto to win after landing this.

In recent runnings the Nicky Henderson and Gary Moore teams have good success in this race, but surprisingly neither yard have entries this year. Of the other yards that have won the prize before and that have runners – the Paul Nicholls yard standout as they took the honours in 2012 with the classy Zarkandar, while Jonjo O’Neill won the prize in 2010 with Get Me Out Of Here.

Paul Nicholls actually has one of the principles in the market with Modus, while Jonjo’s has Mad Jack Mytton entered – and looking at the key trends both seem to have decent profiles that fit in with past winners of the race.

In terms of the stats there are some fairly powerful repeating trends so despite the big-looking field we should be able to put a line though a fair few.

Looking at the age first then it’s horses aged 7 or younger that have the best records – winning 12 of the last 13 runnings, with 5 and 6 year-olds winning the most often – in fact, my winner, Grey Salute, was also a 6 year-old!

Recent form is another trend to note as 11 of the last 13 winners were placed in the top three in their last race, and when applying this we can eliminate a few more. Plus, with 12 of the last 13 winners having won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the past this is another key trend to take into account.

Top owner National Hunt JP McManus has also targeted this race with success in recent years – winning it in 2010 with Get Me Out Of Here and then again in 2013 with My Tent Or Yours – he’s got another strong hand this year with two of the principles in the betting – Modus and Blazer – running for him.

So, with all the key trends taken into account the horses that tick a lot of boxes at this stage are Modus, Blazer, STERNRUBIN (e/w) and MAD JACK MYTTON (e/w). All four are respected, but there doesn’t seem much value in siding with the McManus pair at the odds, despite them both having big chances, so Sternrubin and Mad Jack Mytton are my each-way picks against the field.

STERNRUBIN (e/w) – This German-bred 5 year-old hails from the Philip Hobbs stable and has done nothing wrong this season – winning his last four. He dead-heated last time at Ascot in a 21-runner race, and although he’s raised 8lbs for that he’s a course and distance winner which is a further bonus. Ideally, he could do with the ground drying out a bit, but the team are going well – don’t forget they did the business for us last weekend too with Saddlers Encore – and he’s another that ticks a lot of the trends profile of previous winners of the race.

MAD JACK MYTTON (e/w) – The Jonjo O’Neill yard won this in 2010 with Get Me Out Of Here so know what’s needed to take this, while a recent second at Cheltenham back in December has since been boosted with the winner – Solstice Star – winning again. This 6 year-old has been placed in the top three in 7 of his 8 hurdles outings and despite being untried on heavy ground has gone alright with give underfoot in the past to suggest he’ll be okay in the ground.

OTHER TV RACE TIPS
Newbury
1.50 – BATAVIR (e/w)
Warwick
2.05 – PETITE PARISIENNE
2.40 – L’AMI SERGE