Members

Morning – Well that was nice last weekend as Sametegal (6/1) went in for us at Newbury to give Paul Nicholls yet another winner in the race – we hope you were on! So, we are now just days away from the start of another Cheltenham Festival – are you all set? We’ve listed below our thoughts on the main championship races each day, and don’t forget to snap up the best prices and lock-in your FREE bet with our sponsors -MORE HERE.

However, before that we’ve still plenty to look forward to with the Imperial Cup at Sandown this Saturday – the C4 Racing cameras will be there, plus they are also at Wolverhampton for two races, including their Lincoln Trial. We’ll be taking a closer look at the Imperial Cup, with all the trends below, plus give you our ‘quick-fire’ bets from the other TV races.

Have a good weekend!
Sandown – Imperial Cup Top Tips
3.10 – Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y CH4
13/13 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
12/13 – Carried 10-13 or less
12/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/13 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Aged 6 or younger
10/13 – Rated 124 or higher
9/13 – Carried 10-7 or less
9/13 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara – Fred Winter)
9/13 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before
8/13 – Finished in the top two last time out
8/13 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
6/13 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
6/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – French bred
5/13 – Had raced at Sandown (hurdles) before – 2 had won there before
5/13 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
1/13 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 11/1

TQ VERDICT: This race normally has an attractive bonus attached to it from the sponsors should any winner go onto land a race at the Cheltenham Festival, but that’s unlikely this year as the course only found a race backer late on. Anyway, we are still set for a decent race with 40k on offer to the winner and with the Oliver Sherwood-trained Rayvin Black in the race then this horse brings a bit of quality to the contest. However, he has to pay a penalty for that as he’s been shouldered with top-weight here and has to give a stone+ to all the others. We know, however, this 7 year-old loves it here at Sandown and has improved bundles this season so should not be far away – there are certainly worse each-way options in the race. But the trends suggest looking for horses with a bit less weight to carry as 12 of the last 13 won with 10-13 or less, while 9 of the last 13 only had 10-7 or less.

The other key stats to note are that 12 of the last 13 winners had raced in the last 6 weeks, while 10 of the last 13 were aged 6 or younger. Affaire D’ Honneur is sure to be popular after running on well at Newbury last time out in the Betfair Hurdle to be fourth, but he’s yet to win a race and we can see from the trends that 12 of the last 13 winners had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before. The Philip Hobbs-trained 5 year-old For Good Measure certainly ticks most boxes and has just 10-7 to carry. He heads here on a three-timer after wins at Uttoxeter and Exeter, but a 10lb rise for that last win means that he needs a bit more here. The only real stat he falls down on is that his last run was 86 days ago. Gary Moore’s CLAYTON is another that has plenty going for him and was impressive when winning my 16 lengths at Plumpton last time. He’s got just 10-0 to carry and being rated 100+ on the flat then he certainly is one to consider, despite being a 7 year-old. The final play in the race, and one at a bigger price, is KNOCKGRAFFON (e/w). This 6 year-old hails from the Dan Skelton team and was a fair second on his handicap debut at Leicester last time out. There should be more to come after a 46 day break and is yet to finish out of the first three in all his five career starts to date.

OTHER TV RACE TIPS
Sandown
2.00 – CHARMIX
2.35 – FINANCIAL CLIMATE (e/w)
3.45 – MY KHALEESI

Wolverhampton
2.15 – SUPERSTA
2.50 – SOVEREIGN DEBT
Cheltenham Festival – Championship Races Covered
Champion Hurdle…TQ VERDICT: As we all know, the shine has been taken off this race a little with last year’s champion – Faugheen – missing the contest, plus it wasn’t soon after that news broke that we also found out the 2015 runner-up Arctic Fire would also not be running this year. A double blow for the Mullins team, but it just goes to show their strength-in-depth as they still have the first two in the betting – Annie Power and Nichols Canyon. Annie Power was re-routed here after the Faugheen news as she looked more likely to head for the Mares or World Hurdle, but being installed as clear favourite underlines just what a good chance the bookies think she’s got. She will be looking to become the first mare since Flakey Dove (1994) to land the Champion Hurdle and after her final flight tumble at last year’s festival in the mares’ race there will be no bigger cheer if Ruby can steer her home here. We know she stays further, having also finished second in the World Hurdle in 2014, but this versatile horse is not short of speed either, and getting 7lbs (mares allowance) from the rest is another huge plus for her. That fall 12 months ago was her only real blot having won 10 of her 12 hurdles starts and been second in the other. In what many feel is a slightly sub-standard Champion Hurdle it will be a brave punter that takes her on and she does look the most-likely winner – but is she value? Nichols Canyon looks sure to play his part, and was a solid third in the Neptune here last year, but for us still has a bit to prove and might just be a small notch behind the very top level. The Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle has been a great guide in recent years, so this year’s winner, Identity Thief, rates the better each-way play to us. Yes, this will be his first run at Cheltenham, but he’s a consistent sort that has plenty of speed and if handling the hill looks a big player. My Tent Or Yours was runner-up in 2014, but has had his problems since and the jury will be out as to whether he’ll return the same horse after almost 2 years out. Old Guard could surprise at a price for the Paul Nicholls team as he’s won his last three races here at the track – albeit at a slightly lower level – but at double-figures he’s an interesting each-way player. While THE NEW ONE (e/w), is the last one worth a mention and is our each-way play in the race. This 8 year-old has won just over £700k in total prize money and despite only managing fifth in the race 12 months ago looks to have a fair chance of hitting the frame at least – with the first and second last year now not running. He’s done little wrong this term and was only 7 lengths behind Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day. He’s since beaten Rayvin Black at Haydock, who has done nothing but frank that form since, and don’t forget he was an excellent (close) third in the race in 2014 when getting badly hampered when Our Conor fell. He’s finished first or second in 17 of his 19 hurdles starts and being one of the most consistent horses in training then, for us, rates a solid each-way alternative to those ahead of him in the market.

Pluses….
• 26 of the last 32 won last time out
• The Irish and Henderson have won 13 of the last 17 runnings
• Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 5 runnings
• 7 of the last 9 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 21 of the last 31 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous seasons festival
• The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (3 winners, 4 places in last 8 runnings)
• 13 of the last 20 winners started as flat horses
• Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year

Negatives….
• Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
• 5 year-olds are just 1 from 94 since 1985
• Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older
• Just 1 of the last 9 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
• Christmas Hurdle winners are 2 from 24

Champion Chase…TQ VERDICT: Moving onto the day two highlight as we get a chance to see the best 2 mile chasers around do battle in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. It’s a race that the acca players will have firmly on their radar as we look set to have another odds-on favourite here in the form of UN DE SCEAUX. This classy 8 year-old will be looking to give trainer Willie Mullins his first win in this race, and barring accidents he really should be delivering. The horse won the Arkle very easily 12 months ago so has tasted the festival and the track before, and heads here as the clear form horse after beating several of his rivals here in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot last time out. The winner of that race for the past three seasons has gone onto win the Champion Chase, so the trends are good for Un De Sceaux, while 5 of the last 9 winners were French-bred – another tick for the market leader. 20 of the last 31 had won at the festival before, while ALL of the last 13 winners had run that calendar year – another plus, but a big negative for the 2013 Champion, Sprinter Sacre, who was last seen winning back in December. That said, his participation in the race, as well as the 2014 and 2015 winners Sire De Grugy and Dodging Bullets make this a cracking renewal, but we just feel that the younger legs of Un De Sceaux might just prevail here as we look set to enter a new era in this race. He might not get it all his own way next year though, with the likes of Douvan coming through the ranks. Of those at a price Gods Own, could be the each-way play in the race. He was runner-up in the Arkle 12 months ago here and has finished in the top three in 9 of his 12 chase starts to date – he’ll certainly like it if the ground dried out a bit too!

Pluses…
• 11 of the last 15 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
• The last 3 winners also won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
• 20 of the last 31 had won at the festival before
• Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 5 of the last 8 between them
• All of the last 13 winners had run that calendar year
• 33 of the last 34 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
• 5 of the last 9 winners were French-bred
• 10 of the last 13 winners were second season chasers
• 14 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting

Negatives…
• Only one winner priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 34 years
• Willie Mullins is yet to win this race
• Just 1 of the last 14 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
• None of the last 10 winners had run in more than 13 chases
• Be wary of horses older than 10 – they are just 1 winner since 1977

World Hurdle…TQ VERDICT: A familiar theme here again on Day Three as the feature contest will figure strongly in many people’s doubles and trebles on the day as all eyes will be on the Colin Tizzard-trained THISTLECRACK. His 8 year-old has been a different horse this season after having a wind operation last year. He’s mopped-up all the key trial races – including the Cleeve and Long Walk Hurdles – and on all known form this season is the clear one to beat. Many were questioning his ability to handle the track after running down the field over hurdles here last January, but he quickly put a stop to those rumours with an easy 12 length win in the Cleeve Hurdle this season. That’s always been one of the best trial races ahead of this contest. With 13 of the last 14 winners having finished either first or second in ALL of their hurdles races that season this is another huge stat in favour of Thistlecrack, and really it looks his race to lose. The Tizzards are no strangers these days to landing the big races, but you also feel that if this horse was trained by Mullins, Nicholls or Henderson it would be at least half a point shorter! Of the rest, last year’s winner, Cole Harden, can be expected to make a bold bid from the front again and should be seen in a better light than previous runs this season, but the main danger might come from Alpha Des Obeaux. This 6 year-old has been running well all season – finishing in the top two in all three of his hurdles runs – and really caught the eye when beating At Fishers Cross at Gowran Park last time out.

Pluses…
• 9 of the last 11 won last time out
• 14 of the last 15 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 8 of the last 14 were French Bred
• Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
• 13 of the last 14 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
• 10 of the last 11 winners started 17/2 or less in the betting
• Respect past winners of the race

Negatives…
• Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out (1 from 16)
• A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
• Willie Mullins is yet to win the race
• Avoid front runners
• The Irish are have won the race just once since 1995
• Previous Albert Bartlett winners have a poor record (0 from 13)
• Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 56
• Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 2000

Gold Cup…TQ VERDICT: It’s a shame when we don’t’ get the chance to see the current champion defending his title as Coneygree was ruled out of this race a while ago. That said, we still look set for a ‘crackerjack’ of a race – one top Irish trainer Willie Mullins will be hoping to win for the first time. He’s had the runner-up for the past three years though, so to say he’s been knocking on the door is a massive understatement. He’ll have Don Poli, Vautour and Djakadam running under his name and all three head with huge chances. Vauttour was a classy winner of the JLT at the festival last year and wasn’t disgraced when finishing second to Cue Card in the King George. A lot of people think he didn’t stay that day, but his connections are sure he will get home over this extra distance and if that’s the case rates a big player. Djakadam was runner-up 12 months ago at just 6 years-old and with another year on his back looks sure to go well too. He was going well when falling in the Cotswold Chase here in January though – a race Smad Place went onto win. If that tumble hasn’t left its mark he should not be far away, but might still just have a bit to prove in this grade and agasint the very best staying chasers. Colin Tizzard’s Cue Card will be chasing the £1 million bonus after winning the Betfair Chase and King George, but at 10 years-old he’ll be looking to become the first horse since Cool Dawn (1998) to win at that age. DON COSSACK bounced back to form with a good win at Thurles last time out after falling when in with a huge shout in the King George the time before. He can race a bit lazy at times, but the stiff Cheltenham finish should suit and he’s the call. Yes, he was only third in the Ryanair last year, but looking back that trip was probably on the sharp side for him and over this 3m2f distance, and providing he can stay in touch, should be ruinng on when others have cried enough. Don Poli, last year’s RSA winner, is the final one worth a mention. He’s unbeaten at the track after also winning the Martin Pipe Hurdle race in 2014 – he heads here in cracking order after wins at Aintree and Leopardstown. He will be another looking to give Willie Mullins his first win in this famous race, but it could also be a first for one of the other top Irish yards as we’ll be sticking with Gordon Elliott’s Don Cossack here.

Pluses…
• 14 of the last 16 winners ran in the Lexus or King George that season
• 13 of the last 15 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 11 of the last 15 had won or placed 2nd at the festival before
• 14 of the last 15 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
• 14 of the last 15 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
• 15 of the last 19 winners were bred in Ireland
• 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
• 4 of the last 10 favourites won
• ALL of the last 16 winners were aged 9 or younger

Negatives…
• Non Grade One winners are 0 from the last 16 runnings
• No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 65)
• Horses rated 166 or less are only 3 from last 15
• Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season (0 from 65)
• Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 35
• Willie Mullins is yet to win the race, 0 from 14 (had last 3 seconds though)