Members

8.05pm Hamilton

9/4 Ionization, 11/4 Rosamaria
3/1 Sunnua, 5/1 Hidden Rebel
7/1 Cadmium.

Fillies Handicap over a Mile
June have had 54 similar races

IONIZATION comes from a 6f race
I don’t want a 3yo going up 2 furlongs
Not against older milers
54 similar races and all 16 that tried lost
Must be a very good chance she won’t stay anyway

SUNNUA is the other 3 year old
Not overkeen to bet her her with 1 run this season
The 3 year olds that won with just 1 recent run
Tended to have under 5 career starts
SUNNUA has 8 now and is not like a winner
She may well be at risk of bouncing as well
Especially with just 1 run this year only 15 days ago

If I look at the 54 similar races
For 3 year olds that raced in the last 19 days
I find those with just 1 run this season
And that recent race had a 0-22 record
Now if I look at horses of every age
One run this season
Running in the last 19 days
I find a 0-52 record
I tell you what I think that means
It is statistical evidence albeit circumstantial
Of horses Bouncing running quickly after an absence
Anyway because of that I am opposing her
SUNNUA can not be my selection

Shortlist

CADMIUM wouldn’t be my first choice
Exposed 5 year old with an absence
Well beaten last time and no backclass
Statistically I can not rule her out
A horse called Gaelic Princess won with a similar profile
I don’t think she will win but she does have form here
And as the outsider of a small field
It would not be outrageous to consider her as a 2nd saver

ROSAMARIA is a 3yo
She is the only 3yo in this race I could bet
Her profile was reasonable without being strong

HIDDEN REBEL is rated 78
She faces only a 0-68 class field
That immediately interested me
I looked at similar 4 year olds with 14-15-16 runs
I felt it was a very promising profile
Without being a proven one but I liked it
This is only a 0-68 and a drop in class
Look at the ratings of horses she faced last time
83 72 81 87 78 75 79 81 76
Her previous race was in much better class too
She was entitled to have needed that Doncaster race
There is a chance she didn’t stay that day as well
I like her class drop and her chance

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet HIDDEN REBEL 6/1

£2.50 Win Bet ROSAMARIA 3/1