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Doncaster: We Kick-Off A New Flat Turf Season

DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends

1.50 – Unibet Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4
14/15 – Aged 7 or younger
13/15 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
13/15 – Had won no more than 5 times before
13/15 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
13/15 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
10/15 – Had won over 6f before
10/15 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
9/15 – Rated 102+
9/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/15 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
3/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites (or joint)
3/15 – Had won at Doncaster before
No winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 10 runnings
6 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 9-16 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
Note: The 2007 running was staged at Newcastle
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Redcar
Perfect Pasture (4/1 jfav) took the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: A smaller field than normal for this Listed race so a lot of the main trends are a bit useless. It’s interesting though that we’ve not have a winner from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 10 runnings so Tis Marvellous (1) and Major Jumbo (2) will have this to overcome. Those draw higher in recent years have done well so the James Tate runner – INVINCIBLE ARMY – is the one that gets the nod. This 4 year-old drops down into Listed company for the first time in a while after running well in some top Group races over the last few season. The stable are 2 from 5 (40%) with their 4+ year-olds at the track too and he won first time out last term so the 252 day break isn’t a worry. The Charles Hills yard are also in good form at the moment so their CD winner Equilateral can’t be dismissed, while the same can be said for the Simon Crisford team – they run Mokarris. Arbalet is final one to mention as the Hugo Palmer camp boast a decent 29% record with their older horses here certainly has the past form to take this after running well in the Jersey Stakes (5th) and City Of York Stakes (3rd) last season.

2.25 – Unibet Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4
14/17 – Carried 8-13 or more
14/17 – Aged 4 years-old
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
14/17 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
11/17 – Won over a mile before
9/17 – Won from a single-figure draw
2/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Won last time out
1/17 – Won a race at Doncaster before
2/17 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
Lord Of The Rock won the race in 2016
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 17 years
High Acclaim (50/1) win the race in 2018
Lord Of The Rock won the race in 2016

TQ VERDICT: Horses aged 4 have done best in recent times in this warm-up race for the Lincoln – winning 14 of the last 17! Those carrying 8-13 or more have also done well, while 14 of the last 17 also came here having finished fourth or worse last time out. Of the 16 runners, the 4 year-olds in the contest are PETRUS, EXEC CHEF, AL JELLABY, RAMPANT LION, SOD’S LAW, ROBDELIGHT & FAKE NEWS. Of those seven PETRUS, EXEC CHEF, AL JELLABY, RAMPANT LION also all tick the main weight trend, while AL JELLABY (e/w) and PETRUS (e/w) are the only two that finished fourth or worse last time out. Both are worthy of a small interest in a very open race. Petrus, who is draw in 3, has been gelded since his last run back in October and is certainly dropping to a fair handicap mark (91) based on the fact he has been rated 10lbs higher in the past. He’s also run well over 1m2f at the track so we can expect connections to make full use of that proven stamina. Al Jellaby is draw in the other side (16), but comes here fit from the AW. He’s not been beaten far in his last two runs but a return to the turf looks a plus – he’s run 7 times on the grass and been in the top three five times (1 wins), while is another that’s run well at the track before (2nd here in June 18).

3.00 – Unibet Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV4
Just 6 previous running
6/6 – Last ran 4+ months ago
6/6 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
5/6 – Rated 106+
5/6 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
5/6 – Had won over at least 1m before
5/6 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Winners from stalls 2 or 4 (2 each)
4/6 – Had won 6+ times before
3/6 – Winning favourites
3/6 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/6 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 3)
1/6 – Won last time out
Zabeel Prince (10/11 fav) won the race in 2018

TQ VERDICT: Just the six past runnings here – but with 5 of those going to horses aged between 5-7 years-old then this is a decent trend to note. Horses from stalls 2 or 4 also have a good record in the race, while trainer Roger Varian has also won two of the last three. With all that in mind, it’s hard to get away from the Varian runner – SHARJA BRIDGE – here. This 5 year-old is draw in stall two, plus is also the joint top-rated in the field (110). He returns from a 5 month break but went well on his reappearance run last season (close second) and overall his record is a solid one, with six top three finishes from 9 starts. Any more rain would be a plus too, but he’ll be fine in the ground – he’s the one to beat. Of the rest, Remarkable is the other joint top-rated in the field but this 6 year-old is returning from a 567 day absence so fitness has to be taken on trust. Circus Couture, Gabrial and Red Starlight are others to consider if you are looking for something at a bigger price.

3.35 – Unibet Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4
16/16 – Aged 6 or younger
15/16 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
14/16 – Had won over at least 1m before
13/16 – Had won between 2-4 times before
12/16 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
11/16 – Having their first run of the flat season
10/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
9/16 – Aged 4 years-old
8/16 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/16 – Officially rated between 95-99
8/16 – Placed first or second last time out
7/16 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
6/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
4/16 – Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by William Haggas
2/16 – Trained by Mark Tompkins
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/16 – Trained by John Quinn
Addeybb (5/1) won the race in 2018
8 of the last 9 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 33 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 14/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

TQ VERDICT: With ALL of the last 16 Lincoln winners aged 6 or younger this is a key trend to whittle down the 22 runners – however, a massive 19 fit the bill. 15 of the last 16 winners carried 9-4 or less in weight too, and this helps narrow the field down further as the top five on the card – Another Batt, Safe Voyage, Masham Star, Aquarium and Zwayyan seemingly have too much weight. The Godolphin runner – AUXERRE – is the one that’s been all the rage though and with 9-3 in weight, this 4 year-old ticks a lot of boxes. He’s drawn in stall 17 too and with 12 of the last 16 winners coming from 9 or higher this is another plus. There is every chance he’s a better horse than a handicapper and that seem to be the trend of late with the top stables targeting this lucrative handicapper with their up-and-coming Listed or Group performer.

Last year’s winner Addeybb was another example of this. With just four career runs this Charlie Appleby runner will certainly have more to come and those against him will look to his inexperience, especially in this big field. However, with a high draw there is every chance this race will split into two contests so the big field to the horse won’t actually seem that big as from stall 17 he can get involved early on with the others drawn high. Yes, he’s not much value though, so of the slightly bigger-priced runners South Seas and Kynren can go well – both are drawn high too and have plenty of experience in these big-field handicaps. Ripp Orf is another that’s fared well in these sorts of races in the past and often comes with a string late finish, while there has been a bit of interest in the build-up for the Irish-trained Saltonstall. However, the other interesting one is the Alan King-trained BERINGER (e/w). This 4 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends and from stall 11 will have options to go either way. He’s been running over 1m2f so we can expect connections to make full use of that stamina, while jockey Andrea Atzeni is a top booking. He gets in with just 8-13 in weight – the lowest in the race – while from 11 runs on the turf has finished in the top three 7 times.

KEMPTON Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 –Matchbook Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV4
12/12 – Aged 6 or younger
11/12 – Had won over 1m2f before
10/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/12 – Drawn in stalls 1-4 (inc)
8/12 – Unplaced last time out
8/12 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
7/12 – Winning favourites
5/12 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/12 – Had won at Kempton before
4/12 – Unplaced favourites
4/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Trained by William Haggas
3/12 – Trained by John Gosden
Fabricate (13/8) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

TQ VERDICT: The Queen’s Fabricate took this race last year but with ALL of the last 12 winners of this race aged 6 or younger then he’s got this hefty stat to overcome. Mootasadir will be popular and is a proven course winner, but it won’t be easy having to give 5lbs away to the likes of MATTERHORN, who is actually rated 2lbs higher than him anyway. This Mark Johnston-trained 4 year-old is in the form of his life with five straight wins, including an easy 5 length success here last time. Yes, more is needed into Listed company now, but he’s a rapidly-improving middle distance performer that we know acts at the track. Robin Of Navan, Big Country, Extra Elusive and MASTER THE WORLD are others to note, especially the last-named, who hails from the David Elsworth yard that boast an impressive 32% strike-rate with their older horses here.

2.40 – Better Odds With Matchbook Handicap Cl2 6f ITV4
Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/6 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/6 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
5/6 – Carried between 8-10 and 9-5
5/6 – Ran within the last 2 months
4/6 – Horses from stall 6 placed
3/6 – Winners from stall 6
3/6 – Rated between 87-91
2/6 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 4/1

TQ VERDICT: Just the six previous runnings to go on, but with ALL recent winners aged 4 or 5 years-old then this is a key trend to take into account. Of the 12 runners, we’ve six that fit the bill – Alwasmiya, Gilgamesh, Desert Doctor, Haddaf, Solider’s Minute and Whitefountainfairy. Of that bunch, it might be worth taking a chance on the Simon Crisford runner – ALWASMIYA – as the yard are going well at the moment and also have a cracking 29% record with their older horses at the track. Okay, the horse has clearly had her problems has she’s not been out since Nov 17, but she was last seen winning a Listed contest well and if returning in that sort of form will be a player back into a handicap. Horses from stall 6 seem to have a good record in this race so the Balding-trained WHITEFOUNTAINFAIRY (e/w) would be interesting too and despite returning from a break has gone well fresh in the past too. CD winners, Solider’s Minute and Desert Doctor are others to consider, while last year’s neck runner-up – Udontdodou – has proven form in this race so can’t be ruled out, but it might not be easy from draw 11.

3.15 – Matchbook Betting Podcast Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl2 1m3f ITV4
15/15 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/15 – Had won between 2-4 times before
11/15 – Rated between 89 and 99
10/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
9/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
8/15 – Aged 4 years-old
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
2/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/15 – Winning favourites
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/2

TQ VERDICT: A race with plenty of chances here, but the one I like is the Roger Charlton-trained FORBIDDEN PLANET. The yard has a decent 22% record with their 4+ year-olds at the course and have booked the promising Jason Watson to ride. He’ll also be fitter than most after a busy spell on the AW over the winter and wasn’t disgraced last time out at Chelmsford (2nd) after not getting much room in the closing stages- with just seven career runs, he should have more to come – 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old too. The Alan King pair – Caspar The Cub and Cosmeapolitan – are both CD winners at the track so command respect and should be involved, while the consistent FIRE FIGHTING (e/w) is another to have on your radar after a fast-finishing second last time out at Lingfield – he wasn’t beaten far (2 ¼ lengths) in this race 12 months ago too when fifth.