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Nov 30 2021 @ 16:32
Mathematician posted an update in the group Horse Racing 2 years, 3 months ago
Ante Post Statistics
Saturday December 4th
Aintree 2.40
Becher Handicap Chase
10/1 Escaria Ten, 10/1 Snow Leopardess, 11/1 Mighty Thunder
12/1 Chris’s Dream, 12/1 Highland Hunter, 12/1 Kimberlite Candy
12/1 Mac Tottie, 14/1 Blaklion, 14/1 Cap Du Nord
14/1 Vieux Lion Rouge, 16/1 Checkitout, 16/1 Elegant Escape
16/1 Lord Du Mesnil, 18/1 Eurobot, 20/1 Destinee Royale
20/1 Discordantly, 20/1 Hogan’s Height, 20/1 Landofsmiles
20/1 Ravenhill, 20/1 Rocco, 20/1 Top Ville Ben, 22/1 Achille
22/1 Didero Vallis, 22/1 Tout Est Permis, 22/1 Via Dolorosa
25/1 Cobolobo, 25/1 Dingo Dollar, 25/1 Minella Bobo
25/1 Potterman, 25/1 Snow Falcon, 25/1 Step Back
28/1 El Presente, 33/1 Abaya Du Mathan, 33/1 Alpha Des Obeaux
33/1 D’jango, 33/1 Domaine De L’isle, 33/1 Hill Sixteen
33/1 Le Breuil, 33/1 Manwell, 40/1 Danny Whizzbang
40/1 Late Romantic, 40/1 Ofalltheginjoints, 50/1 El Paso WoodGraded Handicap Chase (3m 2f)
Run over Grand National course
Number of Chase runs
Past winners had the following
23 20 13 7 16 19 18 36 13 25 17 20 4Ideal range would be 7-21 runs
Any horse with under 7 chases
Might look a bit inexperienced
One winner did have 4 chasesHorses with over 23 chase runs
Have won just 2 recent renewals
That was the same horse Hello Bud
The more chase runs over 23
The less likely you are to win thisSeasonal Debutants
Won 4 of the last 12 renewals
All 4 had 10st 9lbs or less
Those with more were 0-23
The 4 seasonal debutant winners
Were rated 142 135 133 138
They all came from big races
Two came from the Grand National
Two from the Bet365 and CheltenhamOfficial Ratings
Since 1998
20 of the last 21 winners
Were officially rated 148 or lower
The exception in 2017 rated 153Last time out
Good recent run is important
Horses that raced this season
Coming from a Handicap Chase
Beaten over 10 lengths in that
Have a 2-84 record since 1998
Both winners overcoming this
Came from Aintree + CheltenhamHorses from hurdles this year
Have not won this in a 0-40 record
Might not be the best preparationHorses Aged 6
Six year olds are 0-9
Do not often run in this race
Only 9 have tried since 1997
Finishing 4 2 F 4 3 6 F 4 URHorses Aged 6 or 7
What few winners there were
Did seem to fit certain patterns
Horses aged 6 or 7
With over 9 Chase runs are 0-28
Horses aged 6 or 7
With 10st 10 lbs or more are 0-22
The younger winners in this race
Were unexposed with light weightsHorses Aged 7
Have a 2-39 record since 1998
They won 3 of the last 26 renewals
All 3 winners had 10st 9lbs or less
All 3 winners had under 9 Chase startsHorses Aged 8
Have a 5-82 record since 1997
They had 20 16 4 13 13 chase runs
They won 4 of the last 16 renewals
None won with more than 11st 6lbsHorses Aged 9
Won 5 of the last 10 renewals
They had 16 18 13 17 20 chase runsHorses Aged 11 +
We have had 5 winners aged 11 +
Horses aged 11 or more are 5-68
Those with 11st or more are 0-18