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Classic Chase Trends, 11th Jan, Warwick

Classic Chase Trends, 11th Jan, Warwick

  • Horse Race Report January 8, 2014 at 14:29

    Classic Chase (Grade 3)

    Course – Warwick
    Distance – 3 miles 5 furlongs
    Date – 11th January
    Average field size last 10 years – 13.6

    Positive Trends

    Price: 5 of the last 10 winners have been priced 10/1 or bigger.
    Class change: 7 of the last 10 winners were racing in a higher class than LTO.
    Breeding: 7 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.
    LTO price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 12/1 or shorter LTO.
    Course LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners raced at either Cheltenham or Newbury LTO. Backing all 35 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £28.00 (ROI +80.0%).
    Trainers: 2 wins a piece for Alan King and Paul Nicholls.

    Negative Trends

    Favourites: 1 win from 11 for a loss of £5.50 (ROI -50.0%).
    Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse LTO having completed the course have provided just 1 winner from 47.
    Breeding: British bred runners have won just 1 race from 24.
    Course LTO: Horses that raced at Chepstow LTO have provided just 1 winner from 34.

    General Trends

    Age: 6 and 7yos have won 1 race from 18 (SR 5.6%); 8yos have won 3 races from 24 (SR 12.5%); 9yos have won 3 races from 41 (SR 7.3%); 10yos have won 1 race from 23 (SR 4.3%); 11yos+ have won 2 races from 31 (SR 6.5%).

    Key Bullet points – look for:

    Priced 12/1 or shorter LTO.

    Other positives – ideally look for:

    Upped in class
    Irish bred
    Raced at Cheltenham or Newbury LTO

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