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Portland Handicap 10 year trends

Portland Handicap 10 year trends

  • Horse Race Report September 13, 2013 at 13:47

    Portland Handicap (3yo+)

    Course – Doncaster / Distance – 5f 140 yards
    Date – September 14th
    Average field size last 10 years – 21

    Market Trends
    Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 13 for a loss of £8.00 (ROI -61.5%).
    Top three in betting: 1 win for the top three in the betting.
    Top six in betting: 4 wins for the top six in the betting.
    Price: Horses priced between 11/1 and 14/1 have provided 6 of the last 10 winners; horses priced between 11/1 to 20/1 have provided 9 winners.
    Price: Horses priced 25/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 84.

    LTO stats
    Days since last run: 9 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for 28 days or less.
    Position LTO: 3 wins for horses that won LTO (from 39 runners).
    Position LTO: 5 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 80 runners.
    LTO favourites: 2 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 32 runners).
    LTO Top three in betting: 3 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 69 runners).
    LTO course: Horses that raced at Ripon LTO have provided 4 winners from 21 for a profit of £36.00 (ROI +171.4%).
    LTO race type: Horses that ran in a non handicap LTO have provided 0 winners from 41.

    Horse Race Report September 13, 2013 at 13:48

    Trainer stats
    Trainers: 2 wins from 2 for David Marnane.

    General stats
    Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 1 win from 73.
    Claiming jockeys: 2 wins from 28.
    Recent win: 4 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 81 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a loss of £49.00 (ROI -23.5%).

    Conclusion – This tends to be a competitive sprint handicap, as 9 of the winners have been priced between 11/1 and 20/1. In terms of age 5yos have done well but so have 8yos+, so that makes it all a bit unclear. It has been an advantage to be drawn high, while horses upped in class have also done well. Horses wearing any type of headgear have struggled as have horses that raced in a non handicap LTO.

    Horse Race Report September 13, 2013 at 21:51

    2.40 Doncaster – Portland handicap

    Best trends fit – Barnet Fair / Prodigality / Inxile

    Best Wishes
    Dave

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