[Horse Race Report]

Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1)

Course – Sandown
Distance – 2 miles
Date – December 7th
Average field size last 10 years – 7

Positive trends

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 7 winning favourites (including joints) from 11.
Market: All of the last 10 winners have come from the top three in the betting.
Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/4 or shorter. All were 6/1 or shorter.
Official rating: 6 of the last 10 winners were rated 167 or more (from just 10 qualifiers).
Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. Horses that finished 2nd LTO provided 3 of the other 4 winners.
Market position LTO: Horses that were favourites last time out have provided 7 winners of the last 10 winners.
Breeding: French breds have won 7 of the last 10 renewals with a further 6 placed.
Class LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners raced in Grade 1 or 2 company LTO.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has won 6 of the last 10 renewals from 19.
Career win percentage: All of the last 10 winners had a career win percentage of over 30%.

Negative trends

Market: Horses ranked 4th or higher in the betting have provided 0 winners from 41 runners.
Price: Horses priced 13/2 or bigger have recorded 0 wins from 41 qualifiers.
LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a surprisingly poor record with 0 wins from 18.

General Stats

Age: 4 and5 year olds have won 3 races from 12 qualifiers (SR 25%); 6 year olds have won 2 races from 10 qualifiers (SR 20%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 9 qualifiers (SR 22.2%); 8 year olds have won 0 races from 14 qualifiers (SR 6.3%); 9 year olds and older have won 3 races from 26 qualifiers (SR 11.5%).

Key Bullet points – look for:

Horses from the top three of the betting especially favourites; raced in Grade 1/2 LTO; a career win percentage of over 30%; finished 1st or 2nd LTO.

Other positives – ideally look for:

Horses trained by Paul Nicholls; French breds; LTO favourites.