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What Grand National winners look like….

I’ve studied the last 20 renewals of the Grand National and there are some strong and reliable signposts that point clearly to the ‘live’ contenders….

Here’s what I found….

19 had scored a career best RPR over fences at 24f+

18 of the last 20 winners had raced over fences at least 10 times (17 had contested no more than 24 chases)

18 had won no more than 3 handicaps during chasing career

17 had won at least 3 chases (18 had won no more than 5 times)

17 had won a chase at 24f+ (17 had raced at 24f+ over fences at Graded level)

17 had finished in top 5 of last chase contested

17 had scored a best RPR over fences of 150+ (14 had produced their best ever rating in one of their last 2 chase starts)

16 had won a chase in a field of 13 or more runners

16 had won 20%+ of chases contested (11 of the last 16 winners had won 29%+)

16 had experience of racing in at least one chase worth £80k+

16 were Irish-bred (note: 3 of the last 14 winners were French-bred horses)

15 had already won a chase worth £30k+

15 had already raced over fences at 28f+ (13 producing an RPR within 8lb of career best RPR over fences)

15 had scored a best Topspeed rating over fences of 126+

14 were aged 9- to 11-years-old

13 of the last 15 winners had contested a Grade level chase that season

10 had run over hurdles at least once during the current season (just 3 had run in more than 5 chases that season)

6 of the last 14 winners carried 11-0 or more to victory

Only 5 of the last 20 winners had won a chase at a trip short of 18f

Only 8 had raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

Only 2 had been off the track for more than 8 weeks (15 had been off no more than 5 weeks)

Just two of the last 20 winners had won more than once over fences that term (8 hadn’t won a single race over fences that season)