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Hi, After a slightly quiet week last Saturday the action steps back up a notch today with one of the season highlights – the King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot – a first chance for this year’s 3 year-old crop to tackle the older horses.

The race has been cut-up a bit after the ante-post favourite and last year’s winner, Postponed, was pulled out in midweek, but we’ve still a fascinating affair with 3 or 4 leading chances – including a one for the Queen. There are three other races at the Berkshire track that will be beamed LIVE by the C4 cameras, plus three more up at York – as always we’ve got it all covered below with our best weekend bets, plus key trends for all the main races.

Ascot – Wings Of Desire To Fly in King George………….

4.30 – King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f CH4

14/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/14 – Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
13/14 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
12/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Placed last time out
10/14 – Previous Group 1 winner
8/14 – Won their previous race
8/14 – Had run Ascot before
6/14 – Favourites that won
6/14 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
5/14 – Won at Ascot before
3/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1981, 1983, 2002, 2009 & 2010
Saeed Bin Suroor won the race in 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999 & 2004
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

VERDICT: The feature race of the day was thrown wide-open in midweek with the antepost favourite and last year’s winner, Postponed, being pulled out. This has given the others hope and with the John Gosden team winning the race in 2011 and 2014 then again they could have the answer. The run Western Hymn, but their main hope looks to be WINGS OF DESIRE. This 3 year-old was a decent fourth in the Epsom Derby last time out – only beaten 7 ¾ lengths – but the time before was a nice winner of the Dante Stakes at York. Yes, he’s got a bit to find on his current rating, but being the only 3 year-old in the race gets a handy 12lbs from the rest and that looks significant based on the fact he was only beaten just under 8 lengths in the Derby. Frankie Dettori is the final icing on the cake. The Stoute team won this most-recently in 2009 and 2010, so they will be trying to follow-up with the Queen’s Dartmouth. This past course and distance winner landed the Hardwicke Stakes at the Royal Meeting back in June – beating another of today’s runners, Highland Reel, by a head. Aidan O’Brien trains Highland Reel and will be looking to add to his recent wins in 2007 and 2008, while he also runs Sir Isaac Newton. Both have fair chances but you feel need to improve a bit on what they’ve shown to date and it certainly won’t be easy giving the weight away to Wings Of Desire. The French-trained Erupt has a squeak too after running second in the French Derby last time out, but is now 5 runs without a win and, again, is another that has to give 12lbs to the selection. For us, Wings Of Desire is the call, with the only proven course and distance winner – Dartmouth – looking the next best.

3.55 – Gigaset International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f CH4

13/13 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
13/13 – Had raced at Ascot previously
13/13 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
11/13 – Won over 7f previously
11/13 – Favourites unplaced
10/13 – Carried 8-9 or more in weight
9/13 – Won between 2-4 times previously
9/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
9/13 – Winners that came from outside the top three in the market
9/13 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
8/13 – Aged 4 years-old
5/13 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/13 – Won their last race
3/13 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/13 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/13 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/13 – Ridden by Jimmy Quinn
0/13 – Favourites

Heavens Guest won the race in 2015
No winner from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 9 or higher
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 21/1

VERDICT: Heaven’s Guest took this race 12 months ago and looks to hold a huge chance again here. Richard Fahey’s charge was a close second in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket last time out and off the same mark here has been handed a great chance to follow-up last year’s success. He won from stall 2 last year, but stall 16 here looks fine and despite that victory 12 months ago coming in softer ground he’s a horse that acts on most surfaces and has won on good-to-firm before too. Connections also stick Adam McNamara back on today to claim a useful 5lbs and that could be the difference – but if there is one negative for this 6 year-old then it’s that ALL of the last 13 winners were aged 5 or younger. Looking at the trends horses from stall one don’t have the best of records (no winner in the last 10 runnings) so Jack Dexter has that to overcome despite running an excellent fourth last time out here over CD. However, after applying most of the main trends to the race there are two standout runners – FLASH FIRE (e/w) and WITHERNSEA (e/w). The first-named hails from the Godolphin camp and was last seen running a decent fifth in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket. Yes, he’s got a bit to find with a few of these on that form, and was well down the field in the Wokingham here in June. But there were excuses that day with the ground softer than ideal and this 7f trip a lot more ideal. Stall 6 should be fine and jockey James Doyle has a good record on him from his two rides – winning once and placed 5th last time. Withernsea was a decent third at Newmarket last time out and this 5 year-old gets in here off the same mark. He’s not been beaten far in his last three races despite not winning, plus being drawn in stall 25 he can grab the rail to help – at a big price he looks a nice e/w option. Of the rest, Suzi’s Connoisseur, who was fifth in this race 12 months ago, is another to note, as is Dean Ivory’s improving Librisa Breeze.

ASCOT TV RACES BEST BETS
2.45 – FAIR EVA
3.20 – VON BLUCHER

YORK

3.35 – Skybet York Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m2f88y CH4

9/10 – Aged 6 or younger
9/10 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/10 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Horses from stall one that finished in the top two
7/10 – Had won over 1m2f before
7/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Had won at least 4 times before
7/10 – Rated between 112 and 117
5/10 – Ran at Sandown last time out
5/10 – Had run at York before
4/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Aged 6 years-old
2/10 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor

Tullius won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

VERDICT: Only five runners here, which is a shame considering there is £56k up for grabs. Air Pilot, Mahssob and Mondialiste all command respect, especially the first-named as he won well last time out over in France. But that was in Group Three grade and will require more now stepped up in class. So really, it’s hard to look beyond the Roger Charlton-trained TIME TEST here. This 4 year-old is the highest-rated in the field at 121 and that’s 5lbs clear of the next best Mahsoob. This pick was a good winner of the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown back in May and followed that up with a fair third in the Coral-Eclipse last time out. That form makes him the clear one to beat, while he’ll also have every assistance in the saddle with Pat Smullen getting the leg-up.

4.10 – Skybet Dash (Handicap) Cl2 6f CH4

12/12 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
11/12 – Carried 8-12 or more
11/12 – Had won between 2-6 times before
11/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Aged 5 or younger
10/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
8/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/12 – Raced at either Hamilton, York, Newmarket or Ascot last time
8/12 – Placed favourites
6/12 – Had run at York before
5/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/12 – Won last time out
7 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or more
Tanzeel won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

VERDICT: Some regular faces here for this valuable Skybet Dash Handicap and also several leading trends to take into the race. The main stats suggest we need to focus on horses that raced in the last 5 weeks had won between 2-6 times before, were aged 5 or younger and came from stall 10 or lower. The Richard Fahey yard should also be respected having won the race in 2006 and 2009 so their runners Patrick, Tatlisu and Artic Feeling are worthy of a second glance. However, the one we like here is last year’s winner – TANZEEL. This 5 year-old is only 2lbs higher than when last winning and despite not sparkling yet this season has been running in some tough contests. The drop back to 6f looks sure to suit as he’s not been quite getting home over 7f, while the quick ground is a further plus. Paul Hanagan heads here to ride for his boss and should strip a lot fitter for his recent Newmarket run being that was his first for 9 months. He ticks several of the key trends too like age (5), weight, recent run (Newmarket), drawn (6) and career wins (3). Of the rest, the others that also fit several of the main stats are Cornwallville and See The Sun so these will be our biggest dangers to the selection.

YORK TV RACES BEST BETS
3.00 – SWIFT APPROVAL

Have a good weekend!