[Horse Race Report]

Course – Curragh
Distance – 1 mile
Date – September 1st
Average field size last 10 years – 21

Market Trends
Favourites: 0 wins from 10.
Top three in betting: 2 wins for the top three in the betting.
Top six in betting: 4 wins for the top six in the betting.
Price: Horses priced between 16/1 and 25/1 have provided 5 of the last 10 winners (in fact 5 of the last 6).

LTO stats
Days since last run: Horses off the track for 10 days or less have provided 0 winners 33.
Position LTO: 3 wins for horses that won LTO (from 41 runners).
Position LTO: 6 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 97 runners.
LTO favourites: 1 win for horses that were favourite LTO (from 36 runners).
LTO Top three in betting: 3 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 92 runners).
LTO price: Horses priced 7/1 or bigger LTO have produced 8 of the last 10 winners.

Trainer stats
Trainers: 2 wins from 4 for Michael Halford.

General stats
Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 1 win from 78.
Claiming jockeys: 4 wins from 70.
Recent win: 5 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 92 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a loss of £29.00 (ROI -31.5%).
Recent form: Horses that had not finished in the first two in any of their last three starts have provided just 1 winner from 78.
Course runs: Horses that had raced twice or more at the Curragh previously have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Sex of horse: 3 wins from53 (SR 5.7%) for female runners; 7 wins from 158 (SR 4.4%) for male runners.

Conclusion – With 5 of the last 6 winners priced 16/1+ this race has an open feel about it. LTO price has been a useful guide too with horses 7/1 or bigger LTO having a far better win percentage than horses that were shorter prices. Essentially though to help us further with this race we need to eliminate certain horses from calculations – horses wearing headgear have a very poor record as do horses that have failed in finish in the first three at least once in their last three starts. There seems little in terms of the draw and also there is no clear age bias.